{"id":8997,"date":"2020-03-21T03:31:59","date_gmt":"2020-03-20T19:31:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/8997.html"},"modified":"2020-03-21T03:31:59","modified_gmt":"2020-03-20T19:31:59","slug":"%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e6%8a%95%e8%b5%84%e7%ac%ac%e4%b8%80%e6%8b%9b-%e6%80%8e%e6%a0%b7%e9%80%bc%e8%87%aa%e5%b7%b1%e6%ad%a2%e4%ba%8f%ef%bc%9f_%e6%8c%87%e6%a0%87%e5%85%ac%e5%bc%8f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/?p=8997","title":{"rendered":"\u80a1\u5e02\u6295\u8d44\u7b2c\u4e00\u62db \u600e\u6837\u903c\u81ea\u5df1\u6b62\u4e8f\uff1f_\u6307\u6807\u516c\u5f0f"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote style=\"font-size:15px;background-color: #F5F5F5;border:none;padding: 5px;margin:15px;line-height: 1.6;text-indent: 2em;\">\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:5px;\">\u6b62\u635f\u65f6\u7684\u4e09\u9519\u8bef\u53ca\u8bbe\u6b62\u635f\u70b9\u7684\u6280\u5de7<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000\u4ece\u4e8b\u6295\u673a\u4e70\u5356\u5fc5\u987b\u627f\u8ba4\u4e2d\u95f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u9519\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u5728\u51fa\u9519\u65f6\u53ca\u65f6\u6295\u964d\uff0c<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/lixiangluntan.com\/zhisun\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><\/a>\u79bb\u573a\u907f\u514d\u5373\u5c0f\u9519\u6210\u5927\u9519\u3002\u5f04\u5230\u6df1\u9677\u6ce5\u8db3\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6b62\u635f\u76d8\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u662f\u4fdd\u62a4\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5728\u51b3\u7b56\u4e0a\u51fa\u73b0\u9519\u8bef\u65f6\uff0c\u51cf\u4f4e\u635f\u5931\u7684\u4e0d\u4e8c\u6cd5\u95e8\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e38\u8bf4\u4e00\u6b21\u610f\u5916\u8db3\u4ee5\u81f4\u547d\u4f46\u82e5\u80fd\u591f\u5c0f\u5fc3\u5229\u7528\u6b62\u635f\u76d8\u7684\u8bdd\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5316\u9669\u4e3a\u5937\u8d8b\u5409\u907f\u51f6\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br \/>\n<script language=\"javascript\" src=\"\/page\/inc\/l001.js\"><\/script> <\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u7531\u9ad8\u4f4d\u4e0d\u65ad\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u4e07\u5343\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4e0a\u4e86\u8f66\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4e0d\u613f\u6b62\u8680\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4e0d\u65ad\u201c\u6c9f\u8d27\u201d\uff0c\u600e\u77e5\u201c\u6108\u6c9f\u6108\u4f4e\u201d\u3002\u95ee\u9898\u5728\u4e8e\u5927\u5bb6\u575a\u4fe1\u81ea\u5df1\u6240\u4fe1\uff0c\u5f53\u5e02\u51b5\u975e\u5982\u9884\u671f\u65f6\uff0c\u5f88\u5c11\u4eba\u4f1a\u8ba4\u9519\u3002\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u4eba\u90fd\u4f1a\u575a\u5b88\u81f3\u65e0\u53ef\u633d\u6551\u7684\u5730\u6b65\uff0c\u76f4\u81f3\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u523b\u624d\u80af\u8ba4\u8f93\u3002<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u8fc7\u5f80\u63a5\u89e6\u8fc7\u4e0d\u5c11\u6295\u8d44\u8005\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u90fd\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u6709\u5fc5\u80dc\u4e4b\u6cd5\u3002\u672c\u6765\u81ea\u4fe1\u662f\u597d\u4e8b\uff0c\u4f46\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5f80\u5f80\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5206\u6790\u8fc7\u5206\u81ea\u4fe1\uff08Biased Expectations\uff09\uff0c\u5f53\u9047\u5230\u80a1\u4ef7\u4e0b\u8dcc\u65f6\u4fbf\u4e0d\u80fd\u5ba2\u89c2\u3001\u7406\u6027\u5730\u6b62\u8680\u3002\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u4f7f\u4eba\u9ad8\u4f30\u77e5\u8bc6\u3001\u4f4e\u4f30<a href=\"http:\/\/lixiangluntan.com\/rumen\/fengxian\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><\/a>\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5938\u5927\u63a7\u5236\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u8fd9\u672c\u8eab\u662f\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u4f46\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u4eba\u90fd\u5426\u8ba4\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u3002<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u5206\u6790\u6613\u51fa\u95ee\u9898<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e00\uff1a\u4f60\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4f60\u7684\u9a7e\u9a76\u6280\u672f\u5982\u4f55\uff1f\u662f\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5e73\u5747\u3001\u7b49\u4e8e\u5e73\u5747\u8fd8\u662f\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u5982\u679c\u4eba\u4e0d\u662f\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u56de\u7b54\u9ad8\u4e8e\u3001\u7b49\u4e8e\u53ca\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u4eba\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u5404\u5360\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u5b66\u751f\u90fd\u81ea\u8ba4\u5728\u5e73\u5747\u4e4b\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u6839\u636e\u4e00\u7bc7\u5df2\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u5728\u62bd\u6837\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u5927\u5b66\u751f\u4e2d\uff0c\u670982%\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9a7e\u9a76\u6280\u672f\u6c34\u5e73\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5e73\u5747\u3002<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u65e2\u7136\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5230\u5e95\u751a\u4e48\u624d\u662f\u5e73\u5747\u7684\u9a7e\u9a76\u6280\u672f\u6c34\u5e73\u5462\uff1f\u6839\u636e\u5e73\u5747\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u670982%\u7684\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5e73\u5747\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8c03\u67e5\u7ed3\u679c\u4ea6\u4e0e\u4e8b\u5b9e\u660e\u663e\u4e0d\u7b26\u3002<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e8c\uff1a\u521b\u4e1a\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u5f88\u5927\uff0c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7684\u65b0\u516c\u53f8\u4f1a\u4ee5\u5931\u8d25\u6536\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u9488\u5bf92994\u5bb6\u65b0\u516c\u53f8\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\uff0c\u8bbf\u95ee\u516c\u53f8\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u81ea\u8ba4\u521b\u4e1a\u6210\u529f\u7684\u673a\u7387\u6709\u591a\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u5e73\u5747\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u521b\u4e1a\u6210\u529f\u7387\u4e3a70%\uff0c\u53ef\u662f\u53ea\u670939%\u7684\u53d7\u8bbf\u8005\u8ba4\u8ba4\uff0c\u5176\u5b83\u50cf\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u65b0\u516c\u53f8\u4f1a\u6210\u529f\u3002\u751a\u4e48\u5927\u90e8\u4efd\u7684\u521b\u4e1a\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6210\u529f\u673a\u7387\u4f1a\u662f\u8fd1\u4e4e\u522b\u4eba\u76842\u500d\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4e24\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u90fd\u8bc1\u660e\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\u2500\u2500\u663e\u7136\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u90fd\u9519\u4e86\uff01\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u90fd\u8fc7\u4efd\u81ea\u4fe1\u3002<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u6295\u8d44\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u56f0\u96be\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u5f53\u4e2d\u6d89\u53ca\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u9519\u5224\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u5ea6\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e86\u81ea\u6211\u7684\u5206\u6790\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5e38\u6210\u4e0d\u826f\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8fc7\u591a\u4ea4\u6613\u3001\u8fc7\u5ea6\u627f\u62c5\u98ce\u9669\u4ee5\u53ca\u9519\u8bef\u51b3\u7b56\u7b49\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u5982\u4f55\u5f62\u6210\u7684\uff1f\u77e5\u9053\u5e7b\u89c9\uff08illusion of knowledge\uff09\u662f\u8087\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u5b83\u4f7f\u4eba\u4ee5\u4e3a\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u5ea6\u4f1a\u968f\u4fe1\u606f\u589e\u52a0\u800c\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u63a7\u5236\u5e7b\u89c9\uff08illusion of control\uff09\u662f\u8087\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e8c \uff0c\u5b83\u4ee4\u4eba\u4ee5\u4e3a\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e0d\u53ef\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5177\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u82e5\u6295\u8d44\u8fc7\u4efd\u81ea\u4fe1\uff0c\u636e\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u6295\u8d44\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u6797\u4e00\u9e23\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u4f1a\u72af\u4e0a\u9644\u8868\u4e0a\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u3002<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u5584\u7528\u6b62\u8d5a\u6b62\u8680\u76d8\u7cfb\u7edf<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u82e5\u9601\u4e0b\u4ea6\u53d1\u89c9\u81ea\u5df1\u8fc7\u4efd\u81ea\u4fe1\uff0c\u600e\u4e48\u529e\u597d\u5462\uff1f \u6563\u6237\u6709\u65f6\u4f1a\u542c\u6d88\u606f\u5165\u5e02\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5bf9\u6d88\u606f\u6df1\u4fe1\u4e0d\u79fb\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u65e0\u4efb\u4f55\u5b9e\u8d28\u6570\u636e\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u5728\u5165\u5e02\u524d\u8981\u6709\u5fc3\u7406\u51c6\u5907\uff0c\u4e07\u4e00\u5e02\u51b5\u4e0e\u5fc3\u76ee\u4e2d\u8d70\u52bf<a href=\"http:\/\/lixiangluntan.com\/lilun\/xiangfan\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><\/a>\uff0c\u4fbf\u5e94\u8be5\u96be\u5b9a\u4e0b\u4e86\u7684\u6b62\u8680\u6c34\u5e73\u6b62\u8680\u3002<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u76f8\u4fe1\u6709\u65f6\u80a1\u6c11\u4f1a\u5fd8\u8bb0\u4e86\u81ea\u5df1\u66fe\u8bbe\u4e0b\u6b62\u8680\u4f4d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5230\u4e86\u6b62\u8680\u4f4d\u4e5f\u60f3\u201c\u518d\u7b49\u4e00\u4f1a\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u73b0\u65f6\u6709\u4e9b\u201c\u4e0b\u5355\u201d\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u540c\u65f6\u8bbe\u5b9a\u6b62\u8d5a\u53ca\u6b62\u8680\u76d8\uff0c\u8fd9\u4fbf\u53ef\u5e2e\u52a9\u4e00\u4e9b\u5728\u5230\u4ef7\u65f6\u3001\u4ecd\u4e0d\u820d\u5f97\u4e0e\u80a1\u4efd\u201c\u62dc\u62dc\u201d\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u9002\u65f6\u79bb\u573a\u8ba9\u5934\u8111\u51b7\u9759<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4e0d\u65f6\u56de\u60f3\u66fe\u7ecf\u6295\u8d44\u51b3\u7b56\u9519\u8bef\u800c\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u7ecf\u5386\uff0c\u53ca\u95ee\u81ea\u5df1\u4eca\u6b21\u5165\u5e02\u51b3\u7b56\u662f\u5426\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u6570\u636e\u53ca\u7406\u7531\u652f\u6301\u3002\u82e5\u6709\uff0c\u8981\u4e0d\u65ad\u95ee\u81ea\u5df1\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u53ca\u7406\u7531\u6709\u6ca1\u6709\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u6709\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u5c31\u8981\u4fee\u6539\u6b62\u8680\u53ca\u6b62\u8d5a\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u82e5\u80a1\u5e02\u53d8\u5f97\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u6682\u65f6\u8fdc\u79bb\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u8ba9\u81ea\u5df1\u51b7\u9759\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u88ab\u8fc7\u516b\u5200\u81ea\u4fe1\u51b2\u660f\u5934\u8111\u3002<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u6700\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u592a\u8d2a\u5fc3\uff0c\u4f01\u56fe\u5728\u80a1\u5e02\u6700\u9ad8\u4f4d\u65f6<a href=\"http:\/\/lixiangluntan.com\/maichu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><\/a>\u624b\u4e0a<a href=\"http:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><\/a>\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u80fd\u9884\u6d4b\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u8fc7\u4efd\u81ea\u4fe1\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5e38\u72af\u7684\u9519\u8bef<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\uff081\uff09\u9ad8\u4f30\u81ea\u5df1\u6295\u8d44\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6bd4\u522b\u4eba\u51c6\u786e<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\uff082\uff09\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u5206\u6790\u80fd\u529b\u5145\u6ee1\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4ea7\u751f\u201c\u77e5\u8bc6\u5e7b\u89c9\u201d\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u6ca1\u6709\u505a\u8fc7\u8be6\u7ec6\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u76f8\u4fe1\u81ea\u5df1\u5df2\u7ecf\u638c\u63e1\u6240\u6709\u8d44\u6599<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\uff083\uff09\u4ea7\u751f\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u6b21\u6570\u4f1a\u6bd4\u5176\u5b83\u4eba\u9891\u7e41<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\uff084\uff09\u53ea\u662f\u5076\u7136\u4e00\u6b21\u7684\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u4fbf\u628a\u81ea\u5df1\u5f53\u6210\u4e13\u5bb6<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\uff085\uff09\u4e0d\u4f1a\u627f\u8ba4\u6295\u8d44\u9519\u8bef\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6b62\u8680\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6295\u5165\u66f4\u591a\u8d44\u91d1\u6c9f\u6de1\uff0c\u4ee4\u5230\u635f\u5931\u66f4\u4e3a\u60e8\u91cd<\/p>\n<p> \uff08\u80a1\u7968\u8d44\u6e90\u9986lixiangluntan.com\uff09 <\/p>\n<h3><\/h3>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u9ed1\u9a6c\u80a1\u7968<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"font-size:15px;background-color: #F5F5F5;border:none;padding: 5px;margin:15px;line-height: 1.6;text-indent: 2em;\">\n<p 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