{"id":784,"date":"2020-03-01T18:20:24","date_gmt":"2020-03-01T10:20:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/2020\/03\/01\/roc%e6%98%af%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%84%8f%e6%80%9d%ef%bc%9f_%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e5%85%ac%e5%bc%8f%e6%8c%87%e6%a0%87%e3%80%81%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e4%b9%a6%e7%b1%8d%e4%b8%8b%e8%bd%bd%e7%bd%91%e7%ab%99\/"},"modified":"2020-03-01T18:20:24","modified_gmt":"2020-03-01T10:20:24","slug":"roc%e6%98%af%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%84%8f%e6%80%9d%ef%bc%9f_%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e5%85%ac%e5%bc%8f%e6%8c%87%e6%a0%87%e3%80%81%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e4%b9%a6%e7%b1%8d%e4%b8%8b%e8%bd%bd%e7%bd%91%e7%ab%99","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/?p=784","title":{"rendered":"ROC\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u610f\u601d\uff1f_\u80a1\u7968\u516c\u5f0f\u6307\u6807\u3001\u80a1\u7968\u4e66\u7c4d\u4e0b\u8f7d\u7f51\u7ad9\u3001\u7092\u80a1\u6559\u7a0b\u3001\u9ed1\u9a6c\u80a1\u7968\u3001\u80a1\u7968\u8d44\u8baf\u3001\u671f\u8d27\u5916\u6c47\uff0c\u5927\u667a\u6167\u6caa\u6df110\u6863\u7834\u89e3"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\u8ba4\u6cbd\u6743\u8bc1\u7684\u7b80\u4ecb\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u8ba4\u6cbd\u6743\u8bc1\uff1f
\n\u8ba4\u6cbd\u6743\u8bc1<\/strong>\u7684\u7b80\u4ecb\uff1f<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

     <\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u4ec0\u4e48\u662fROC<\/u><\/strong>\uff1fROC\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u610f\u601d\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u7ecf\u5178\u6307\u6807<\/u>ROC\u662f\u7531\u5f53\u5929\u7684\u80a1\u4ef7\u4e0e\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u5929\u6570\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u67d0\u4e00\u5929\u80a1\u4ef7\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u5176\u53d8\u52a8\u901f\u5ea6\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u6765\u53cd\u6620\u80a1\u7968<\/u>\u5e02\u53d8\u52a8\u7684\u5feb\u6162\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7684\u4e66\u7c4d\u4e0a\u628aROC\u53eb\u505a\u53d8\u52a8\u901f\u5ea6\u6307\u6807\u6216\u53d8\u5316\u901f\u7387\u6307\u6807\u3002\u4ece\u82f1\u6587\u539f\u6587\u76f4\u8bd1\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u53d8\u5316\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u30001. ROC\u7684\u53c2\u6570<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000ROC\u4e2d\u53ea\u542b\u4e00\u4e2a\u53c2\u6570\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u7a76\u7adf\u662f\u540c\u591a\u5c11\u5929\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u80a1\u4ef7\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5929\u6570N\u5c31\u662f\u53c2\u6570\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u53c2\u6570\u7684\u542b\u4e49\u5176\u5b9e\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u76f8\u6bd4\u8f83\u7684\u80a1\u4ef7\u79bb\u73b0\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0a\u7684\u8fdc\u8fd1\u3002N\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u8ddd\u73b0\u5728\u8d8a\u8fdc\u3002N\u9009\u5f97\u592a\u5927\uff0c\u79bb\u5f97\u592a\u8fdc\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u80a1\u4ef7\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u53ef\u80fd\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u6307\u5bfc\u610f\u4e49\u3002N\u9009\u5f97\u592a\u5c0f\uff0c\u79bb\u5f97\u592a\u8fd1\uff0c\u5bf9\u9884\u6d4b\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u6307\u5bfc\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u53c2\u6570N\u5e94\u8be5\u9009\u591a\u5c11\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e\u4e2a\u4eba\u7684\u4e60\u60ef\u6709\u5173\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u4e00\u6982\u800c\u8bba\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u6d41\u884c\u7684\u662fN=5\u548cN=10\u7b49\u51e0\u79cd\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u30002. ROC\u7684\u7279\u6027<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\uff081\uff09 ROC\u8868\u793a\u80a1\u4ef7\u4e0a\u5347\u6216\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u901f\u7387\u5927\u5c0f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5982\u679c\u662f\u4e0a\u5347\u8d8b\u52bf<\/u>\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14ROC\u4e3a\u6b63\u503c\uff0c\u53e6\u5916ROC\u6b65\u6b65\u4e0a\u626c\uff0c\u5219\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4e0a\u5347\u8d8b\u52bf\u6b63\u5728\u52a0\u901f\uff0c\u82e5ROC\u5f00\u59cb\u8d70\u5e73\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u80a1\u4ef7\u7684\u6da8\u5e45\u4e0e\u6570\u5929\u524d\u7684\u80a1\u4ef7\u6da8\u5e45\u76f8\u8fd1\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd8\u5904\u4e8e\u4e0a\u5347\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u4f46\u901f\u5ea6\u5df2\u7ecf\u653e\u6162;\u82e5ROC\u5f00\u59cb\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u80a1\u4ef7\u8fd8\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u5df2\u7ecf\u8870\u843d;\u82e5ROC\u5f00\u59cb\u5ef6\u4f38\u52300\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5219\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\u8d8b\u52bf\u5df2\u5f00\u59cb\u9732\u5934\uff0cROC\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5411\u4e0b\uff0c\u5219\u4e0b\u964d\u52a8\u529b\u6b63\u5728\u52a0\u5f3a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000ROC\u662f\u663e\u793a\u4e00\u5b9a\u65f6\u95f4\u95f4\u9694\u7684\u4e24\u5934\u7684\u80a1\u4ef7\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u5dee\u4ef7\u3002ROC\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5219\u80a1\u4ef7\u6bd4\u6570\u5929\u524d\u7684\u80a1\u4ef7\u6709\u6240\u4e0a\u5347\u3002ROC\u8d70\u5e73\uff0c\u5219\u5f53\u524d\u80a1\u4ef7\u6da8\u5e45\u4ec5\u4ec5\u540c\u6570\u5929\u524d\u4e00\u6837\u3002ROC\u5411\u4e0b\uff0c\u5219\u80a1\u4ef7\u5df2\u7ecf\u6bd4\u6570\u5929\u6570\u7684\u6da8\u5e45\u5c0f\u4e86\u3002ROC\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u663e\u793a\u5f53\u524d\u80a1\u4ef7\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u52a0\u901f\u548c\u51cf\u901f\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e0b\u964d\u8d8b\u52bf\u548cROC\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u4e14\u4e3a\u8d1f\u503c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5730\u53d9\u8ff0\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\uff082\uff09 ROC\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u8d85\u524d\u4e8e\u80a1\u4ef7\u7684\u53d8\u5316<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u56e0\u4e3aROC\u7684\u6784\u9020\u7279\u70b9\uff0cROC\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u603b\u662f\u9886\u5148\u4e8e\u80a1\u4ef7\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6bd4\u4ef7\u683c\u63d0\u524d\u51e0\u5929\u4e0a\u5347\u6216\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u80a1\u4ef7\u8fd8\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\u65f6\uff0cROC\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u8d70\u5e73\uff0c\u800c\u80a1\u4ef7\u8d70\u5e73\u65f6\uff0cROC\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0b\u964d\u4e86\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u4e5f\u662f\u80cc\u79bb\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u4f9d\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\uff083\uff09ROC\u6298\u53d8\u5316\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u8303\u56f4<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000ROC\u53ef\u6b63\u53ef\u8d1f\uff0c\u53ef\u5927\u53ef\u5c0f\uff0c\u4f46\u662fROC\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u662f\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u6b63\u6570\u548c\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d1f\u6570\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97ROC\u66f2\u7ebf\u7edd\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u843d\u5728\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u6570\u6784\u6210\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u5185\uff0c\u5373\u6bd4\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6b63\u6570\u5c0f\uff0c\u6bd4\u90a3\u4e2a\u8d1f\u6570\u5927\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u5c31<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u597d\u50cf\u7ed9ROC\u52a0\u4e0a\u4e86\u4e0a\u4e0b\u8fb9\u754c\u4e00\u6837\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u6761\u8fb9\u754c\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u4eca\u540e\u9884\u6d4b\u80a1\u4ef7\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u9ad8\u5ea6\u548c\u4e0b\u964d\u6df1\u5ea6\u5f88\u6709\u5e2e\u52a9\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u8fd9\u4e24\u6761\u8fb9\u754c\u901a\u8fc7\u53cd\u5411\u8fd0\u7b97\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u672a\u6765\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u9ad8\u5ea6\u548c\u4e0b\u964d\u9ad8\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u30003. ROC\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u6cd5\u5219\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u6839\u636eROC\u7684\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u6309\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u6cd5\u5219\u6b63\u786e\u5730\u5e94\u7528ROC\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u5e94\u7528ROC\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u6280\u672f\u6307\u6807\u2500\u2500ROCAVG\uff08ROCR\u7684\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\uff081\uff09 \u4eceROC\u7684\u53d6\u503c\u65b9\u9762<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000ROC\u81ea\u4e0a\u800c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u78340\uff0c\u662f\u5356\u51fa<\/u>\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0cROC\u81ea\u4e0b\u800c\u4e0a\u7a7f\u8fc70\uff0c\u662f\u4e70\u8fdb\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u7531ROC\u63cf\u8ff0\u80a1\u4ef7\u53d8\u52a8\u901f\u5ea6\u7684\u7279\u6027\u800c\u5b9a\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\uff082\uff09 \u4eceROC\u4e0eROCAVG\u7684\u76f8\u5bf9\u53d6\u503c\u65b9\u9762<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u540e\u8005\u662f\u524d\u8005\u7684\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u5c31\u5982\u80a1\u4ef7\u4e0eMA\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\uff0cROC\u4e0a\u7a7fROCAVG\u5e76\u4e14ROC\u4e3a\u6b63\u503c\u65f6\uff0c\u662f\u4e70\u5165<\/u>\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u540c\u7406\uff0cROC\u4e0b\u7a7fROCAVG\u5e76\u4e14ROC\u4e3a\u8d1f\u503c\u65f6\uff0c\u662f\u5356\u51fa\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\uff083\uff09 \u4eceROC\u4e0e\u80a1\u4ef7\u7684\u80cc\u79bb\u65b9\u9762<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000ROC\u6709\u9886\u5148\u4e8e\u80a1\u4ef7\u7684\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6709\u5982\u4e0b\u7684\u6cd5\u5219\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5982\u679c\u4ece\u9ad8\u5411\u4f4eROC\u66f2\u7ebf\u51fa\u73b0\u4e24\u4e2a\u4f9d\u6b21\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u5cf0\uff0c\u800c\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u80a1\u4ef7\u5374\u51fa\u73b0\u65b0\u7684\u9ad8\u5cf0\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u80cc\u79bb\uff0c\u662f\u5356\u51fa\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u540c\u7406\uff0cROC\u4ece\u4f4e\u5411\u9ad8\u5f62\u6210\u4f9d\u6b21\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u8c37\uff0c\u800c\u6b64\u65f6\uff0c\u80a1\u4ef7\u5374\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u4f4e\u8c37\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e70\u5165\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000ROC\uff08Price Rate of Change\uff09\u4e43\u4ee5\u4eca\u5929\u4e4b\u4ef7\u683c\u6bd4\u8f83\u5176N\u5929\u524d\u4e4b\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u4ee5\u6bd4\u7387\u8868\u793a\u4e4b\uff0c\u6b64\u6307\u6807\u7ecf\u7531Gerald Apple And Fred Hitschler \u4e24\u4eba\u4e8e\u201cStock Market Tra Systems\u201d\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\u4ecb\u7ecd\uff0c\u91c7\u752812\u5929\u53ca25\u5929\u5468\u671f<\/u>\u53ef\u8fbe\u5230\u76f8\u5f53\u7684\u6548\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u4e70\u5356\u539f\u5219\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u3000\u30001. ROC\u5177\u6709\u8d85\u4e70\u8d85\u5356\u7684\u539f\u5219\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u30002. \u4e2a\u80a1\u7ecf\u4ef7\u683c\u6bd4\u7387\u4e4b\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u5176\u8d85\u4e70\u8d85\u5356\u8303\u56f4\u4e5f\u7565\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u822c\u4ecb\u4e8e\u6b63\u8d1f6.5\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u30003. ROC\u62b5\u8fbe\u8d85\u5356\u6c34\u51c6\u65f6\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e70\uff1b\u62b5\u8fbe\u8d85\u4e70\u6c34\u51c6\u65f6\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e70\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u30004. ROC\u5bf9\u4e8e\u80a1\u4ef7\u4e5f\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u80cc\u79bb\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u4e00\uff0e\u7528\u9014\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u7528\u6765\u6d4b\u91cf\u4ef7<\/u>\u4f4d\u52a8\u91cf\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u540c\u65f6\u76d1\u89c6\u5e38\u6001\u6027\u548c\u6781\u7aef\u6027\u4e24\u79cd\u884c\u60c5\u3002ROC\u4ee50\u4e3a\u4e2d\u8f74\u7ebf\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5347\u81f3\u6b63\u65e0\u9650\u5927\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0b\u8dcc\u81f3\u8d1f\u65e0\u9650\u5c0f\u3002\u4ee50\u8f74\u5230\u7b2c\u4e00\u6761\u8d85\u4e70\u6216\u8d85\u5356\u7ebf\u7684\u8ddd\u79bb\uff0c\u5f80\u4e0a\u548c\u5f80\u4e0b\u62c9\u4e00\u500d\u3001\u4e24\u500d\u7684\u8ddd\u79bb\uff0c\u518d\u753b\u51fa\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6761\u3001\u7b2c\u4e09\u6761\u8d85\u4e70\u8d85\u5356\u7ebf\uff0c\u5219\u56fe\u5f62\u4e0a\u5c31\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u4e0a\u4e0b\u5404\u4e09\u6761\u7684\u5929\u5730\u7ebf\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u4e8c\uff0e\u4f7f\u7528\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u3000\u30001\u3001 ROC\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e8e\u201c\u5e38\u6001\u8303\u56f4\u201d\u5185\uff0c\u800c\u4e0a\u5347\u81f3\u7b2c\u4e00\u6761\u8d85\u4e70\u7ebf\u65f6\uff0c\u5e94\u5356\u51fa\u80a1\u7968\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u30002\u3001 ROC\u6ce2\u52a8\u4e8e\u201c\u5e38\u6001\u8303\u56f4\u201d\u5185\uff0c\u800c\u4e0b\u964d\u81f3\u7b2c\u4e00\u6761\u8d85\u5356\u7ebf\u65f6\uff0c\u5e94\u4e70\u8fdb\u80a1\u7968\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u3000\u3000\u4e09\uff0e\u4f7f\u7528\u5fc3\u5f97\uff1a<\/p>\n

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\u3000\u30002\u3001 BX=12\u5929\u524d\u7684\u6536\u76d8\u4ef7<\/p>\n

\u3000\u30003\u3001 ROC=AX\/BX<\/p>\n

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\n

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