{"id":33537,"date":"2020-07-30T23:19:40","date_gmt":"2020-07-30T15:19:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/33537.html"},"modified":"2020-07-30T23:19:40","modified_gmt":"2020-07-30T15:19:40","slug":"%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e6%8a%95%e8%b5%84%e8%80%85%e8%af%a5%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e9%81%bf%e5%85%8d%e8%87%aa%e6%88%91%e8%92%99%e8%94%bd%ef%bc%9f%e8%82%a1%e5%b8%82%e6%8a%95%e8%b5%84%e8%80%85%e8%af%a5%e6%80%8e","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/?p=33537","title":{"rendered":"\u80a1\u5e02\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8be5\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u81ea\u6211\u8499\u853d\uff1f\u80a1\u5e02\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8be5\u600e\u6837\u907f\u514d\u81ea\u6211\u8499\u853d_\u5927\u667a\u61678.29\u7b56\u7565\u6295\u8d44\u7834"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote style=\"font-size:15px;background-color: #F5F5F5;border:none;padding: 5px;margin:15px;line-height: 1.6;text-indent: 2em;\">\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:5px;\">\u80a1\u5e02\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u8bef\u533a\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u80a1\u5e02\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u8bef\u533a\u6709\u54ea\u4e9b<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000<br \/>\n<strong>\u80a1\u5e02\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u8bef\u533a<\/strong>\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u80a1\u5e02\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u8bef\u533a\u6709\u54ea\u4e9b\uff1f<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000<strong>\u80a1\u5e02\u6295\u8d44\u8005<\/strong>\u8be5\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u81ea\u6211\u8499\u853d\uff1f\u80a1\u5e02\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8be5\u600e\u6837\u907f\u514d\u81ea\u6211\u8499\u853d\uff1f<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u8bb0\u4f4f\u201c\u6700\u5371\u9669\u7684\u65f6\u523b\u5c31\u662f\u4f60\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u65f6\u523b\u201d\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u5f7c\u5f97\u2022\u4f2f\u6069\u65af\u5766\uff08Peter Bernstein\uff09\u5e38\u8bf4\u7684\u8bdd\u3002<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u4f60\u5e94\u5f53\u63d0\u524d\u8bbe\u5b9a\u4e00\u4e2a\u76c8\u5229\u5e95\u7ebf\u2500\u2500\u4f8b\u598250%\u7684\u6da8\u5e45\uff0c\u8981\u6c42\u81ea\u5df1\u4e00\u65e6\u89e6\u53ca\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5e95\u7ebf\u5c31\u5bf9\u624b\u4e2d\u7684\u5934\u5bf8\u8fdb\u884c\u5168\u9762\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002\u5230\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u8003\u8651\u53cd\u65b9\u7684\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4f60\u6301\u6709\u67d0\u53ea\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u5e94\u8be5\u4ed4\u7ec6\u7814\u7a76\u4e00\u4e0b\u505a\u7a7a\u8fd9\u53ea\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u4eba\u6240\u6301\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5728\u8003\u8651\u91c7\u53d6\u67d0\u9879\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u8fd8\u5e94\u5f53\u5148\u770b\u4e00\u4e0b\u5176\u4ed6\u5df2\u7ecf\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u7c7b\u4f3c\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6216\u673a\u6784\u7684\u6218\u7ee9\u5982\u4f55\u3002\u9664\u975e\u5176\u4ed6\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u4f60\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5e94\u5f53\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u5c31\u4f1a\u8d62\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u672c\u5e94\u8be5\u770b\u4e00\u4e0b\u5176\u4ed6\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u94f6\u884c\u5728\u884d\u751f\u54c1\u6760\u6746\u6295\u8d44\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u7cdf\u7cd5\u8bb0\u5f55\u3002<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u65f6\u523b\u63d0\u9632\u81ea\u5df1\u8d70\u5411\u504f\u6fc0\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u53d1\u73b0\u81ea\u5df1\u5f00\u59cb\u5632\u7b11\u90a3\u4e9b\u8bf4\u4f60\u505a\u9519\u4e86\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4f60\u4e5f\u8bb8\u771f\u7684\u505a\u9519\u4e86\u3002\u4f2f\u7279\u5170\u2022\u7f57\u7d20\uff08Bertrand Russell\uff09\u66fe\u7ecf\u8b66\u544a\u4e16\u4eba\uff0c\u8d8a\u662f\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u7f3a\u4e4f\u8bc1\u636e\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u8d8a\u662f\u4f1a\u56fa\u6267\u5730\u575a\u79f0\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u7edd\u5bf9\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u8bd5\u8bd5\u88ab\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u52a0\u91cc\u2022\u514b\u83b1\u56e0\uff08Gary Klein\uff09\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u4e8b\u524d\u9a8c\u5c38\u201d\uff08pre-mortem\uff09\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5427\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u4f60\u521a\u505a\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u5728\u4e00\u5e74\u540e\u60e8\u8d25\uff0c\u53ec\u96c6\u4e00\u4e9b\u4f60\u91cd\u89c6\u5176\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u8bbe\u60f3\u4e00\u4e0b\u4ece\u90a3\u4e2a\u65f6\u5019\u5f80\u56de\u770b\u4f60\u6240\u505a\u7684\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u5e76\u5217\u51fa\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u4f60\u6295\u8d44\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u6240\u6709\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u8fd9\u6216\u8bb8\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u4f60\u5f04\u6e05\u695a\u8be5\u5982\u4f55\u9632\u8303\u4e8e\u672a\u7136\u3002<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u8bf4\u5230\u5e95\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5207\u8bb0\u4e0d\u8981\u201c\u806a\u660e\u53cd\u88ab\u806a\u660e\u8bef\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n<p> \u3000\u3000\u66f4\u591a\u80a1\u5e02\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8be5\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u81ea\u6211\u8499\u853d\u77e5\u8bc6\u8bf7\u5173\u6ce8\u80a1\u7968\u77e5\u8bc6\u7f51<\/p>\n<p> \uff08\u80a1\u7968\u8d44\u6e90\u9986lixiangluntan.com\uff09<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"font-size:15px;background-color: #F5F5F5;border:none;padding: 5px;margin:15px;line-height: 1.6;text-indent: 2em;\">\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:5px;\">\u3010\u80a1\u7968\u8d44\u6e90\u9986\u3011\u5927\u667a\u6167365\u7834\u89e3\u7248\uff0c\u80a1\u7968,\u80a1\u7968\u8d44\u6e90\u9986,\u80a1\u7968\u7f51,\u80a1\u7968\u8f6f\u4ef6,\u80a1\u7968\u516c\u5f0f,\u80a1\u7968\u4e66\u7c4d,\u7092\u80a1\u8f6f\u4ef6,\u80a1\u7968\u77e5\u8bc6,\u80a1\u7968\u5165\u95e8,\u7092\u80a1\u6559\u7a0b,\u80a1\u7968\u516c\u5f0f\u6307\u6807\u3001\u80a1\u7968\u4e66\u7c4d\u4e0b\u8f7d\u7f51\u7ad9\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote style=\"font-size:15px;background-color: #F5F5F5;border:none;padding: 5px;margin:15px;line-height: 1.6;text-indent: 2em;\">\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:5px;\">\u7092\u80a1\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u5927\u8111\u51fa\u9519\uff1f\u7092\u80a1\u907f\u514d\u5927\u8111\u51fa\u9519\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48<\/p>\n<p>\u3000\u3000<br \/>\n<strong><\/strong>\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u5927\u8111\u51fa\u9519\uff1f\u7092\u80a1\u907f\u514d\u5927\u8111\u51fa\u9519\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u3000\u3000<br \/>\n<strong>\u80a1\u5e02\u6295\u8d44\u8005<\/strong>\u8be5\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u81ea\u6211\u8499\u853d\uff1f\u80a1\u5e02\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u8be5\u600e\u6837\u907f\u514d\u81ea\u6211\u8499\u853d\uff1f<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[115],"class_list":["post-33537","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-xl","tag-115"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33537","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=33537"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33537\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=33537"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=33537"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=33537"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}