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\n

\u5982\u4f55\u5999\u7528MACD<\/p>\n

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\n

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\u3000\u3000\u5728\u503a\u5238\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u4e0a\u4ece\u4e8b\u6ce2\u6bb5\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u5e0c\u671b\u5728\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u3001\u4fc3\u4f7f\u957f\u671f\u503a\u5238\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u524d\uff0c\u628a\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u8f6c\u5165\u5230\u671f\u65e5\u5f88\u4e45\u7684\u503a\u5238\uff0c\u5728\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u3001\u9a71\u4f7f\u957f\u671f\u503a\u5238\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u518d\u8f6c\u5165\u5230\u671f\u8fd1\u7684\u503a\u5238\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u3000\u3000\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u7406\u6ce2\u6bb5\u64cd\u4f5c\u7684\u6210\u7ee9\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e00\u89c1\u96be\u5fd8\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7edd\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u90fd\u662f\u4e8f\u635f\u3002\u6709\u4e00\u4efd\u7cbe\u5fc3\u7814\u7a76\u6ce2\u6bb5\u64cd\u4f5c\u3001\u4f46\u672a\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u65ad\u5b9a\uff1a\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u9519\u8bef\u548c\u52a0\u4ee5\u6210\u672c\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u7406\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u9884\u6d4b4\u6b21\u5fc5\u987b\u67093\u6b21\u6b63\u786e\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u624d\u80fd\u635f\u76ca\u4e24\u5e73\u3002\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6ce2\u6bb5\u64cd\u4f5c\u8fd9\u4e48\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u63d0\u9ad8\u6295\u8d44\u7ee9\u6548\uff1f\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u6770\u798f\u745e(Robert Jeffery)\u63d0\u51fa\u8fc7\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u5728\u8fd9\u4e48\u77ed\u7684\u671f\u95f4\u5185\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u5e73\u51e1\u7684\u5171\u8bc6\u5de6\u53f3\u65f6\uff0c\u53d1\u751f\u8fd9\u4e48\u591a\u7684\u201c\u52a8\u4f5c\u201d\u3002\u4e00\u4efd\u672a\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\u7814\u7a76100\u5bb6\u5927\u578b\u9000\u4f11\u57fa\u91d1\u53ca\u5176\u6ce2\u6bb5\u64cd\u4f5c\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u6240\u6709\u9000\u4f11\u57fa\u91d1\u90fd\u4ece\u4e8b\u8fc7\u6ce2\u6bb5\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u4f46\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u5bb6\u80fd\u9760\u6ce2\u6bb5\u64cd\u4f5c\u63d0\u9ad8\u6295\u8d44\u62a5\u916c\u7387\uff0c\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c100\u5bb6\u4e2d\u670989\u5bb6\u56e0\u4e3a\u201c\u6ce2\u6bb5\u64cd\u4f5c\u201d\u800c\u4e8f\u635f\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u57285\u5e74\u5185\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u4e8f\u635f\u9ad8\u8fbe4.5%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5c31\u50cf\u6709\u201c\u8001\u201d\u98de\u884c\u5458\u3001\u4e5f\u6709\u201c\u5927\u80c6\u201d\u7684\u98de\u884c\u5458\uff0c\u5374\u6ca1\u6709\u201c\u5927\u80c6\u7684\u8001\u201d\u98de\u884c\u5458\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u4e5f\u201c\u6ca1\u6709\u201d\u9760\u6ce2\u6bb5\u64cd\u4f5c\u4e00\u518d\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u3002\u8d2a\u5fc3\u6216\u6050\u60e7\u4fc3\u6210\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u901a\u5e38\u90fd\u662f\u9519\u8bef\u7684\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u4e5f\u592a\u6162\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u53cd\u65b9\u5411\u624d\u6b63\u786e\u3002\u5728\u771f\u5200\u771f\u67aa\u7684\u91d1\u94b1\u6e38\u620f\u4e0a\u5c24\u5176\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u8bd5\u56fe\u731c\u900f\u5e02\u573a\u6216\u80dc\u8fc7\u4f17\u591a\u4e13\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u201c\u5356\u9ad8\u4e70\u4f4e\u201d\uff0c\u8fde\u60f3\u90fd\u522b\u60f3\uff0c\u4f60\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f1a\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u53ef\u80fd\u8f93\u5f97\u5f88\u60e8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u8d39\u96ea\u00b7\u5e03\u83b1\u514b(Fischer Black)\u8bf4\u5f97\u597d\uff1a\u201c\u4e00\u822c\u8bf4\u6765\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u9000\u51fa\u5e02\u573a\u6216\u7559\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u91cc\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u90fd\u4e00\u6837\u597d\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u6709\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u65f6\u95f4\u9000\u51fa\u5e02\u573a\u65f6\uff0c\u548c\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u4e70\u8fdb\u957f\u62b1\u7b56\u7565\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u4e00\u5b9a\u4f1a\u4e8f\u94b1\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u6ce2\u6bb5\u64cd\u4f5c\u56f0\u96be\u5341\u8db3\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u8bf4\u5f97\u6700\u900f\u5f7b\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u51fa\u81ea\u4e00\u4f4d\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e30\u5bcc\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u4eba\u58eb\u5766\u767d\u7684\u611f\u53f9\uff0c\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u770b\u8fc7\u5f88\u591a\u6709\u610f\u601d\u7684\u6ce2\u6bb5\u64cd\u4f5c\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6211\u572840\u5e74\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u751f\u6daf\u4e2d\uff0c\u8bd5\u8fc7\u5176\u4e2d\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u6211\u4e4b\u524d\u53ef\u80fd\u5f88\u9ad8\u660e\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b9\u6cd5\u80fd\u591f\u5e2e\u5f97\u4e0a\u6211\u7684\u5fd9\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\uff01\u201d<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u522b\u5c1d\u8bd5\u6ce2\u6bb5\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u5f88\u591a\u5f88\u591a\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u7406\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5927\u91cf\u6301\u6709\u73b0\u91d1\u6216\u5927\u91cf\u6295\u8d44\u65f6\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u4e00\u6837\u597d\uff0c\u53cd\u4e4b\u4ea6\u7136\u3002(\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e13\u4e1a\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u7406\u901a\u5e38\u4e92\u76f8\u62b5\u6d88\uff0c\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u6bb5\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u73b0\u91d1\u90e8\u4f4d\u7684\u4eba\u6570\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u7b49\u4e8e\u51cf\u5c11\u73b0\u91d1\u90e8\u4f4d\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u3002)<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u56fe1 1982\u20141990\u5e74\u590d\u5408\u62a5\u916c\u7387(%)<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u56fe2 1928\u5e74\u6295\u8d441\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u52301990\u5e74\u7d2f\u79ef\u7684\u62a5\u916c<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\u66f4\u6e05\u695a\uff0c\u56fe1\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u53bb\u6389\u5e02\u573a\u8868\u73b0\u6700\u597d\u7684\u65e5\u5b50\u540e\uff0c\u957f\u671f\u590d\u5408\u6295\u8d44\u62a5\u916c\u7387\u4f1a\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u62ff\u6389\u8868\u73b0\u6700\u597d\u768410\u5929\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6295\u8d44\u62a5\u916c\u7387\u5c31\u4f1a\u5c11\u63891\/3\uff0c\u4ece18%\u964d\u4e3a12%\uff0c\u8fd910\u5929\u5360\u6574\u4e2a\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4e0d\u52300.5%\u3002\u62ff\u6389\u6b21\u4f73\u768410\u5929\u540e\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u53c8\u4f7f\u6295\u8d44\u62a5\u916c\u7387\u518d\u5c11\u63891\/3\uff0c\u964d\u4e3a8.3%\u3002\u53bb\u6389\u8868\u73b0\u6700\u597d\u768430\u5929\u540e\uff0c\u8fd930\u5929\u5360\u6574\u4e2a\u671f\u95f4\u76841.5%\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u62a5\u916c\u7387\u5c31\u4f1a\u4ece18%\u6389\u52305%\u3002\u56fe2\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u957f\u671f\u80a1\u4ef7\u65f6\uff0c\u53bb\u6389\u8868\u73b0\u6700\u597d\u7684\u5e74\u4efd\uff0c\u4f1a\u5f97\u5230\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u6ce2\u6bb5\u64cd\u4f5c\u662f\u201c\u90aa\u6076\u201d\u7684\u89c2\u5ff5\uff0c\u522b\u53bb\u5c1d\u8bd5\uff0c\u5343\u4e07\u4e0d\u8981\u5c1d\u8bd5\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u50cf\u6240\u6709\u9ad8\u660e\u7684\u5f8b\u5e08\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u5fc5\u987b\u900f\u5f7b\u4e86\u89e3\u5bf9\u624b\u624d\u7b97\u505a\u597d\u4e86\u51c6\u5907\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u6295\u8d44\u884c\u5bb6\u5bf9\u6ce2\u6bb5\u64cd\u4f5c\u8bf1\u60d1\u529b\u7684\u8fa9\u8bba\u6709\u5174\u8da3\u3002\u57281960\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u6295\u8d441\u7f8e\u5143\u5728\u6807\u51c6\u666e\u5c14500\u79cd\u80a1\u4ef7\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u52301990\u5e746\u6708\uff0c\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u523019.45\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8bf7\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5728\u8fd930\u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u5728\u5e02\u573a\u8868\u73b0\u6700\u597d\u768410\u4e2a\u6708\u91cc\uff0c\u628a\u540c\u6837\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u64a4\u51fa\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u53ea\u5360\u6574\u4e2a30\u5e74\u76843%\u800c\u5df2\uff0c\u52301990\u5e746\u6708\uff0c1\u7f8e\u5143\u53ea\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u52306.58\u7f8e\u5143(\u5927\u7ea6\u53ea\u7b49\u4e8e\u6536\u76ca\u5e73\u5e73\u7684\u56fd\u5e93\u503a\u5238)\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e3b\u5f20\u957f\u671f\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u4eba\u8bf4\uff0c\u5728\u884c\u60c5\u8270\u96be\u65f6\u4ecd\u7136\u7ee7\u7eed\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u624d\u662f\u60df\u4e00\u5065\u5168\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u4eab\u53d7\u8868\u73b0\u4f18\u5f02\u7684\u5927\u597d\u65f6\u5149\uff01<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u201c\u522b\u9aa4\u4e0b\u5b9a\u8bba\u3002\u201d\u4e3b\u5f20\u6ce2\u6bb5\u64cd\u4f5c\u7684\u9ad8\u624b\u8bf4\u3002\u5982\u679c\u80fd\u591f\u907f\u5f00\u8868\u73b0\u6700\u7cdf\u768410\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c1\u7f8e\u5143\u4f1a\u66b4\u589e\u523063.39\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u8981\u662f\u4f60\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u79cd\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\u5f88\u6709\u8bf1\u60d1\u529b\uff0c\u4f60\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u5174\u8da3\u518d\u770b\u770b\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\u00b7\u8d5b\u4f2f(James Thurber)\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u4e4b\u4f5c\u300a\u534e\u7279\u00b7\u7c73\u63d0\u7684\u751f\u6daf\u300b(The Adventures of Walter Mitty)\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u4e66\u4e2d\u7528\u6807\u51c6\u666e\u5c14500\u79cd\u80a1\u4ef7\u6307\u6570\u7684\u62a5\u916c\u7387\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8861\u91cf\u4f9d\u636e\uff0c\u8fc5\u901f\u3001\u660e\u786e\u5730\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\u4e0b\u8ff0\u4e3b\u65e8\uff1a\u4ece1926\u5e74\u52301996\u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u6bb5\u6f2b\u957f\u768470\u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u6240\u6709\u7684\u62a5\u916c\u7387\u51e0\u4e4e\u90fd\u662f\u5728\u8868\u73b0\u6700\u597d\u768460\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u7f14\u9020\u7684\uff0c\u8fd960\u4e2a\u6708\u53ea\u5360\u5168\u90e8862\u4e2a\u6708\u76847%\u800c\u5df2\u3002\u8981\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u77e5\u9053\u662f\u54ea\u4e9b\u6708\u4efd\uff0c\u60f3\u60f3\u770b\u83b7\u5229\u4f1a\u6709\u591a\u9ad8\uff01\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u505a\u4e0d\u5230\uff0c\u4ee5\u540e\u4e5f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u505a\u5230\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u786e\u77e5\u9053\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u5355\u800c\u73cd\u8d35\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u9519\u8fc7\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8868\u73b0\u7edd\u4f73\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u7b97\u592a\u591a\u768460\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u9519\u5931\u6389\u6574\u657460\u5e74\u624d\u80fd\u79ef\u7d2f\u5230\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u51e0\u4e4e\u7b49\u4e8e\u6240\u6709\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u62a5\u916c\u7387\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u6559\u8bad\u5f88\u6e05\u695a\uff1a\u201c\u95ea\u7535\u6253\u4e0b\u6765\u65f6\uff0c\u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u573a\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u8bc1\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u5927\u578b\u673a\u6784\u80fd\u591f\u6301\u7eed\u5728\u884c\u60c5\u4f4e\u843d\u65f6\u8fdb\u573a\uff0c\u5230\u884c\u60c5\u9ad8\u6da8\u65f6\u9000\u573a\u3002\u6839\u636e\u5bf9\u884c\u60c5\u6ce2\u52a8\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5728\u80a1\u7968\u548c\u503a\u5238\u3001\u6216\u5728\u80a1\u7968\u548c\u73b0\u91d1\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u6765\u56de\u6362\u7c7b\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\u8fdc\u6bd4\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6b21\u6570\u5927\u591a\u4e86\u3002{\u80a1\u7968\u516c\u5f0f\u7f51:www.lixiangluntan.com\u4e13\u4e1a\u7834\u89e3\u5b98\u65b9\u9ad8\u7aef\u80a1\u7968\u8f6f\u4ef6--\u516c\u5f0f\u7f16\u5199\u4ea4\u6d41--\u52a0QQ751161480--}<\/p>\n

\n

\u3010\u80a1\u7968\u8d44\u6e90\u9986\u3011\u5927\u667a\u6167365\u7834\u89e3\u7248\uff0c\u80a1\u7968,\u80a1\u7968\u8d44\u6e90\u9986,\u80a1\u7968\u7f51,\u80a1\u7968\u8f6f\u4ef6,\u80a1\u7968\u516c\u5f0f,\u80a1\u7968\u4e66\u7c4d,\u7092\u80a1\u8f6f\u4ef6,\u80a1\u7968\u77e5\u8bc6,\u80a1\u7968\u5165\u95e8,\u7092\u80a1\u6559\u7a0b,\u80a1\u7968\u516c\u5f0f\u6307\u6807\u3001\u80a1\u7968\u4e66\u7c4d\u4e0b\u8f7d\u7f51\u7ad9\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\n

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