{"id":144758,"date":"2020-08-01T00:48:21","date_gmt":"2020-07-31T16:48:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/144758.html"},"modified":"2020-08-01T00:48:21","modified_gmt":"2020-07-31T16:48:21","slug":"%e7%82%92%e8%82%a1%e5%85%a5%e9%97%a8%e7%9f%a5%e8%af%86sar%e7%9a%84%e7%ae%97%e6%b3%95_%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e8%bd%af%e4%bb%b6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/?p=144758","title":{"rendered":"\u7092\u80a1\u5165\u95e8\u77e5\u8bc6:SAR\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5_\u80a1\u7968\u8f6f\u4ef6"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\u7092\u80a1\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6280\u5de7\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48<\/p>\n

\u559c\u6b22\u8bfb\u6b66\u4fa0\u5c0f\u8bf4\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u6b66\u529f\u6709\u56db\u79cd\u5883\u754c\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u5883\u754c\u662f\u65e0\u62db\u65e0\u52bf\uff0c\u4e71\u6253\u4e00\u901a;\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5883\u754c\u662f\u6709\u62db\u65e0\u52bf\uff0c\u82b1\u62f3\u7ee3\u817f;\u7b2c\u4e09\u5883\u754c\u662f\u6709\u62db\u6709\u52bf\uff0c\u5927\u4fa0\u7ea7\u522b;\u7b2c\u56db\u5883\u754c\u5219\u91cd\u56de\u65e0\u62db\u65e0\u52bf\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5fd8\u8bb0\u81ea\u5df1\u4f1a\u6b66\u529f\uff0c\u5374\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u5b97\u5e08\u7ea7\u522b\u7684\u4eba\u7269\u3002 \u3000\u3000\u7092\u80a1\u5176\u5b9e\u4e5f\u662f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u5904\u4e8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u5883\u754c\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u770b\u7740\u522b\u4eba\u8d5a\u94b1\uff0c\u5f88\u7fa1\u6155\uff0c\u6ee1\u4ee5\u4e3a\u80a1\u5e02\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6361\u94b1\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u6295\u5165\u8d44\u91d1\u5c31\u80fd\u8d5a\u94b1\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f2006\u5e74\u548c2007\u5e74\u65b0\u80a1\u6c11\u4e0d\u65ad\u5165\u5e02\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u6240\u5728\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f2007\u5e7440%\u7684\u80a1\u6c11\u4e8f\u635f\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u6240\u5728\u3002\u8981\u5728\u80a1\u5e02\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6b66\u6797\u4e2d\u751f\u5b58\uff0c\u597d\u6b79\u4e5f\u5f97\u61c2\u70b9\u751f\u5b58\u4e4b\u9053\u554a\uff0c\u4f46\u65b0\u80a1\u6c11\u90fd\u5fd9\u7740\u76ef\u76d8\u548c\u67e5\u8d44\u91d1\u8d26\u6237\u53bb\u4e86<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\u80a1\u7968\u516c\u5f0f\u5927\u5168<\/a>{\u80a1\u7968\u8d44\u6e90\u9986:www.lixiangluntan.com\u4e13\u4e1a\u548c\u8c10\u9ad8\u7aef\u7092\u80a1\u8f6f\u4ef6--\u516c\u5f0f\u7f16\u5199\u4ea4\u6d41--\u52a0QQ751161480--} <\/p>\n

\u5047\u8bbe\u53c2\u6570\u4e3a(N,2,20)<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u9996\u5148\u8981\u786e\u5b9a\u662f\u6da8\u52bf\u8fd8\u662f\u8dcc\u52bf\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5f97\u51fa\u8d77\u7b97\u70b9\u3002\u6709\u591a\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u7565\u8fc7\u3002<\/p>\n

 \u3000\u3000\u4e00\u3001\u6da8\u52bf\u4e2d\u7b97\u6cd5<\/p>\n

 \u3000\u30001.\u6da8\u52bf\u4e2d\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u662ft<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u90a3SAR(t)\u7b49\u4e8e\u524d\u9762N\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5(\u5373\uff0ct-N,\u2026\u2026,t-1\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5)\u4e2d\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u4ef7\u683c\u3002<\/p>\n

 \u3000\u3000\u5982\u679cSAR(t)\u5927\u4e8et\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u4ef7L(t)\uff0c\u5219\u53d1\u751f\u8df3\u8f6c\uff0c\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u65f6\u8fdb\u5165\u8dcc\u52bf;<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5982\u679cSAR(t)\u4e0d\u5927\u4e8et\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u4ef7L(t)\uff0c\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u65f6\u8fdb\u5165\u6da8\u52bf\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b65;\u5e76\u4e14\uff0c\u6781\u503cEp(t)\u7b49\u4e8e\u6700\u8fd1N\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5(\u5373t-N+1,\u2026\u2026,t\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5)\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u4ef7\u683c;Af(t)=0.02\u3002<\/p>\n

 \u3000\u30002.\u6da8\u52bf\u4e2d\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b65\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u662ft+1<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000SAR(t+1)=SAR(t)+Af(t)*(Ep(t) \u2013 SAR(t))\u3002<\/p>\n

 \u3000\u3000\u5982\u679cSAR(t+1)\u5927\u4e8et+1\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u4ef7L(t+1),\u5219\u53d1\u751f\u8df3\u8f6c\uff0c\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u65f6\u8fdb\u5165\u8dcc\u52bf;<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5982\u679cSAR(t+1)\u4e0d\u5927\u4e8et+1\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u4ef7L(t+1),\uff0c\u8fdb\u5165\u6da8\u52bf\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65;\u5e76\u4e14\uff0c\u6781\u503cEp(t+1)\u7b49\u4e8e\u6700\u8fd1N\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5(\u5373t-N+2,\u2026\u2026,t+1\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5)\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u4ef7\u683c;\u5982\u679c\u8be5\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u4ef7\uff0c\u5373H(t+1)\u6bd4\u524d\u9762N\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5(\u5373\uff0ct-N+1,\u2026\u2026,t)\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u4ef7\u9ad8\uff0c\u5219AF(t+1)=AF(t)+0.02\uff0c\u5426\u5219\uff0cAF(t+1)=AF(t)\u3002<\/p>\n

 \u3000\u30003.\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u5728\u540e\u9762\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5t+2\uff0ct+3\uff0c\u2026\u2026\uff0c\u4e0a\u91cd\u590d\u6da8\u52bf\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b65\u4e2d\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u53d1\u751f\u8df3\u8f6c\u4e3a\u6b62\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0cAF\u7684\u6700\u5927\u503c\u662f0.2\u3002<\/p>\n

 \u3000\u3000\u4e8c\u3001\u8dcc\u52bf\u4e2d\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5<\/p>\n

 \u3000\u30001.\u8dcc\u52bf\u4e2d\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u662ft<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u90a3SAR(t)\u7b49\u4e8e\u524d\u9762N\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5(\u5373\uff0ct-N,\u2026\u2026,t-1\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5)\u4e2d\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u4ef7\u683c\u3002<\/p>\n

 \u3000\u3000\u5982\u679cSAR(t)\u5c0f\u4e8et\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u4ef7H(t)\uff0c\u5219\u53d1\u751f\u8df3\u8f6c\uff0c\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u65f6\u8fdb\u5165\u6da8\u52bf;<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5982\u679cSAR(t)\u4e0d\u5c0f\u4e8et\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u4ef7H(t)\uff0c\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u65f6\u8fdb\u5165\u8dcc\u52bf\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b65;\u5e76\u4e14\uff0c\u6781\u503cEp(t)\u7b49\u4e8e\u6700\u8fd1N\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5(\u5373t-N+1,\u2026\u2026,t\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5)\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u4ef7\u683c;Af(t)=0.02\u3002<\/p>\n

 \u3000\u30002.\u8dcc\u52bf\u4e2d\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b65\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u662ft+1<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000SAR(t+1)=SAR(t)+Af(t)*(Ep(t) \u2013 SAR(t)).<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5982\u679cSAR(t+1)\u5c0f\u4e8et+1\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u4ef7H(t+1),\u5219\u53d1\u751f\u8df3\u8f6c\uff0c\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u65f6\u8fdb\u5165\u6da8\u52bf;<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5982\u679cSAR(t+1)\u4e0d\u5c0f\u4e8et+1\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u4ef7L(t+1),\uff0c\u8fdb\u5165\u8dcc\u52bf\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65;\u5e76\u4e14\uff0c\u6781\u503cEp(t+1)\u7b49\u4e8e\u6700\u8fd1N\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5(\u5373t-N+2,\u2026\u2026,t+1\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5)\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u4ef7\u683c;\u5982\u679c\u8be5\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u4ef7L(t+1)\uff0c\u6bd4\u524d\u9762N\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5(\u5373\uff0ct-N+1,\u2026\u2026,t)\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u4ef7\u4f4e\uff0c\u5219AF(t+1)=AF(t)+0.02\uff0c\u5426\u5219\uff0cAF(t+1)=AF(t)\u3002<\/p>\n

 \u3000\u30003.\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u5728\u540e\u9762\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5t+2\uff0ct+3\uff0c\u2026\u2026\uff0c\u4e0a\u91cd\u590d\u8dcc\u52bf\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b65\u4e2d\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u53d1\u751f\u8df3\u8f6c\u4e3a\u6b62\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0cAF\u7684\u6700\u5927\u503c\u662f0.2\u3002<\/p>\n

 \u3000\u3000\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u7684SAR\u7b97\u6cd5\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u4e2d\uff0c\u5927\u4f53\u7ed3\u6784\u548c\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u67d0\u4e2a\u6216\u67d0\u51e0\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u548c\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u6da8\u52bf\u548c\u8dcc\u52bf\u4e2d\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u90fd\u662f\u5bf9\u79f0\u7684\uff0c\u4e0b\u9762\u53ea\u8bf4\u660e\u5728\u6da8\u52bf\u4e2d\u4e0d\u540c\u4e4b\u5904\u3002<\/p>\n

 \u3000\u3000\u4e00\u3001\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\u4e2d\u7684SAR(t)\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u7b97\u6cd5\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u6709\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u662f\u628a\u524d\u4e00\u4e2a\u6ce2\u6bb5(\u5373\u524d\u9762\u7684\u6574\u4e2a\u8dcc\u52bf\u6ce2\u6bb5)\u4e2d\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u4ef7\u683c\u4f5c\u4e3aSAR(t)\u7684\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n

 \u3000\u3000(\u4e0b\u9762\u5047\u8bbe\u5f53\u524d\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u662ft+m\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u3002)<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u4e8c\u3001EP\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u7b97\u6cd5\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u6709\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u662f\u628a\u4ecet\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u5230t+m\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\uff0c\u5373\u672c\u6ce2\u6da8\u52bf(\u5373\u672c\u4e2a\u4e0a\u6da8\u6ce2\u6bb5)\u4e2d\u5230t+m\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u4e3a\u6b62\u7684\u6240\u6709\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\uff0c\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u4ef7\u683c\u4f5c\u4e3aEP(t+m);\u8fd8\u6709\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u662f\u628at+m\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u4ef7\u4f5c\u4e3aEP(t+m)\u3002<\/p>\n

 \u3000\u3000\u4e09\u3001\u52a0\u901f\u56e0\u5b50\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u89e6\u53d1\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u6709\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u662f\u662f\u5f53\u672c\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u4e2d\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u4ef7H(t+m)\u5927\u4e8e\u672c\u6ce2\u6da8\u52bf\u4e2d\u524d\u9762\u6240\u6709\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u4e2d\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u4ef7\u65f6\uff0c\u8c03\u6574\u52a0\u901f\u56e0\u5b50;\u6709\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u662f\u5f53\u5f53\u672c\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u4e2d\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u4ef7H(t+m)\u5927\u4e8e\u672c\u6ce2\u6da8\u52bf\u4e2d\u524d\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u4e2d\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u4ef7H(t+m-1)\u65f6\uff0c\u8c03\u6574\u52a0\u901f\u56e0\u5b50\u3002<\/p>\n

 \u3000\u3000\u56db\u3001\u8df3\u8f6c\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f53t+m\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u7684SAR(t+m)\u5927\u4e8et+m\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u4ef7L(t+m)\u65f6\uff0c\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u53d1\u751f\u8df3\u8f6c\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u8fdb\u5165\u8dcc\u52bf;\u800c\u6709\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u662f\u5f53t+m\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u4e2d\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u5c0f\u4e8eSAR(t+m)\u65f6\uff0c\u7acb\u523b(\u9a6c\u4e0a)\u53d1\u751f\u8df3\u8f6c\uff0c\u5373\u5728t+m\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u5c31\u8fdb\u5165\u8dcc\u52bf\uff0c\u8fd9\u65f6SAR(t+m)\u7684\u503c\u4e5f\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6309\u7167\u8dcc\u52bf\u4e2d\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\u4e2d\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u6765\u786e\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n

 \u3000\u3000\u4e94\u3001\u52a0\u901f\u56e0\u5b50\u8c03\u6574\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0d<\/p>\n

 \u3000\u3000\u540c\u3002\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u4e2d\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5728t+m\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e86\u8c03\u6574\u52a0\u901f\u56e0\u5b50\u7684\u89e6\u53d1\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97SAR(t+m)\u65f6\u4ecd\u7136\u4f7f\u7528\u8c03\u6574\u524d\u7684\u52a0\u901f\u56e0\u5b50\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u800c\u5c06\u8c03\u6574\u540e\u7684\u52a0\u901f\u56e0\u5b50\u7528\u4e8eSAR(t+m+1)\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002\u6709\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5728t+m\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u4e2d\u7684\u67d0\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\u4e0a\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e86\u8c03\u6574\u52a0\u901f\u56e0\u5b50\u7684\u89e6\u53d1\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u7acb\u523b\u4f7f\u7528\u8c03\u6574\u540e\u7684\u52a0\u901f\u56e0\u5b50\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97SAR(t+m)\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c SAR(t+m)\u9a6c\u4e0a\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u53d8\u5316\u3002(\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u7b97\u6cd5\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u524d\u9762\u4e24\u4e2d\u7b97\u6cd5\u7684\u6298\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\uff1a(1)\u8ba1\u7b97\u672c\u6ce2\u6da8\u52bf\u4e2d\u7b2c\u4e8c\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5SAR(t+1)\u65f6\u7684\u52a0\u901f\u56e0\u5b50\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f0.02;(2)\u8ba1\u7b97\u67d0\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5SAR(t+m)\u7684\u52a0\u901f\u56e0\u5b50\u4e0e\u8ba1\u7b97\u524d\u4e00\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5SAR(t+m-1)\u7684\u52a0\u901f\u56e0\u5b50\u4e4b\u5dee\u5c0f\u4e8e\u7b49\u4e8e0.02\u3002\u5f53t+n\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u4e2d(\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u4f7f\u7528t+n\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u4e0et+m\u533a\u522b\u5f00\u6765\uff0c\u4ee5\u514d\u6df7\u6dc6\u6216\u8bef\u89e3;\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684t+n\u4e5f\u662f\u6307\u5f53\u524d\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5)\u67d0\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u5927\u4e8e\u672c\u6ce2\u6da8\u52bf\u4e2d\u524d\u9762\u6240\u6709\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u4e2d\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u4ef7\u65f6\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6ee1\u8db3\u524d\u9762\u4e24\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u9a6c\u4e0a\u8c03\u6574\u52a0\u901f\u56e0\u5b50\u5e76\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b0\u7684SAR(t+n)\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u5c31\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u5b8c\u672c\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u7684SAR(t+n)\u4e4b\u540e(\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5c31\u662f\u5bf9SAR(t+n)\u4e0d\u505a\u6539\u53d8)\u518d\u8c03\u6574\u52a0\u901f\u56e0\u5b50\uff0c\u5e76\u7528\u4e8e\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u7684SAR(t+n+1)\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002)<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5b9e\u9645\u89c2\u5bdf<\/p>\n

 \u3000\u3000\u4e00\u3001\u6587\u534e\u8d22\u7ecf\u8f6f\u4ef6\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u6da8\u52bf\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\u4e2d\u7684SAR(t)\u65f6\uff0c\u662f\u5c06\u524d\u9762\u7684\u8dcc\u52bf\u6ce2\u6bb5\u4e2d\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u4ef7\u4f5c\u4e3aSAR(t)\u7684\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n

 \u3000\u3000\u4e8c\u3001\u6587\u534e\u8d22\u7ecf\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u6da8\u52bf\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b65\u4e2d\u7684SAR(t+1)\u65f6\uff0c\u6240\u7528\u7684\u52a0\u901f\u56e0\u5b50\u90fd\u662f0.02\u3002<\/p>\n

 \u3000\u3000\u95ee\u9898<\/p>\n

 \u3000\u3000\u4e00\u3001SAR\u65b9\u6cd5\u8f83\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u65e5SAR\u8fd8\u662f\u67d0\u5206\u949f\u7684SAR?<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u4e8c\u3001\u600e\u6837\u68c0\u9a8c\u54ea\u4e00\u79cd\u7b97\u6cd5\u6216\u8005\u54ea\u4e00\u7ec4\u53c2\u6570\u66f4\u597d\u7528?<\/p>\n

{\u80a1\u7968\u8d44\u6e90\u9986:www.lixiangluntan.com\u4e13\u4e1a\u548c\u8c10\u9ad8\u7aef\u7092\u80a1\u8f6f\u4ef6--\u516c\u5f0f\u7f16\u5199\u4ea4\u6d41--\u52a0QQ751161480--}\u80a1\u7968\u516c\u5f0f\u5927\u5168<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

\u77ed\u7ebf\u9ad8\u624b\u768410\u5927\u6b65\u9aa4<\/p>\n

1.\u786e\u8ba4\u957f\u3001\u4e2d\u3001\u77ed\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u4f7f\u7528\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6216\u8005\u6280\u672f\u5206\u6790\u6cd5\u4e2d\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u578b\u6280\u672f\u6307\u6807\u786e\u8ba4\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002 \u3000\u30002.\u6839\u636e\u4fe1\u53f7\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u7387\u8c03\u6574\u6295\u8d44\u8d44\u91d1\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002 \u3000\u30003.\u5728\u884c\u60c5\u56de\u8c03\u91c7\u7528\u91d1\u5b57\u5854\u52a0\u7801\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u5229\u6da6\u3002 \u3000\u30004.\u4e00\u65e6\u53d1\u51fa\u51cf\u4ed3\u4fe1\u53f7\u3001\u5e73\u4ed3\u4fe1\u53f7\u679c\u65ad\u79bb\u573a\u3002 \u3000\u30005.\u6bcf\u65e5\u64cd\u4f5c\u6b21\u6570\u4e0d\u8d85\u8fc75\u6b21\uff0c\u5426\u5219\u51fa\u73b0\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4ea4\u6613\u5931\u53bb\u7406\u6027\u3002 \u3000\u30006.\u5f53\u65e5\u83b7\u5229\u8d85\u8fc710%\u79bb\u573a\u89c2\u671b\uff0c\u5f53\u65e5\u6b62\u635f\u8d85\u8fc710%\u6682\u505c\u4ea4\u6613\u4e24\u5929\u3002 \u3000\u30007.\u5c06\u5de8\u989d\u5229\u6da6\u8c03\u79bb\u51fa\u573a\uff0c\u6700\u5c1150%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002 \u3000\u30008.\u751f\u6d3b\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u6295\u5165\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u7cbe\u529b\u770b\u76d8\u3001\u603b\u7ed3\u3002 \u3000\u30009.\u8bad\u7ec3\u3002\u6bcf\u65e5\u68c0\u8ba8\u3001\u603b\u7ed3\u5f53\u65e5\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u8bad\u7ec3\u4e0b\u5355\u901f\u5ea6\u3002 \u3000\u300010.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u5047\u8bbe\u53c2\u6570\u4e3a(N,2,20) \u3000\u3000\u9996\u5148\u8981\u786e\u5b9a\u662f\u6da8\u52bf\u8fd8\u662f\u8dcc\u52bf\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5f97\u51fa\u8d77\u7b97\u70b9\u3002\u6709\u591a\u79cd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u7565\u8fc7\u3002 \u3000\u3000\u4e00\u3001\u6da8\u52bf\u4e2d\u7b97\u6cd5 \u3000\u30001.\u6da8\u52bf\u4e2d\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u662ft \u3000\u3000\u90a3SAR(t)\u7b49\u4e8e\u524d\u9762N\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5(\u5373\uff0ct-N,,t-1\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5)\u4e2d\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u4ef7\u683c\u3002 \u3000\u3000\u5982\u679cSAR(t)\u5927\u4e8et\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u4ef7L(t)\uff0c\u5219\u53d1\u751f\u8df3\u8f6c\uff0c\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u65f6\u8fdb\u5165\u8dcc\u52bf; \u3000\u3000\u5982\u679cSAR(t)\u4e0d\u5927\u4e8et\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u4ef7L(t)\uff0c\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u65f6\u8fdb\u5165\u6da8\u52bf\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b65;\u5e76\u4e14\uff0c\u6781\u503cEp(t)\u7b49\u4e8e\u6700\u8fd1N\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5(\u5373t-N+1,,t\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5)\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u4ef7\u683c;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":144766,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[185],"tags":[186],"class_list":["post-144758","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cgjy","tag-186"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/144758","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=144758"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/144758\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/144766"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=144758"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=144758"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=144758"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}