{"id":133287,"date":"2019-01-13T17:58:06","date_gmt":"2019-01-13T09:58:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/133287.html"},"modified":"2019-01-13T17:58:06","modified_gmt":"2019-01-13T09:58:06","slug":"%e6%9c%9f%e6%9c%9b%e6%94%b6%e7%9b%8a%e7%8e%87%e5%92%8c%e8%82%a1%e7%a5%a8%e8%82%a1%e6%9d%83%e4%bb%b7%e5%80%bc%e4%b9%8b%e9%97%b4%e6%98%af%e6%80%8e%e4%b9%88%e6%a0%b7%e7%9a%84%e5%85%b3%e7%b3%bb%ef%bc%9f_","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/?p=133287","title":{"rendered":"\u671f\u671b\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u548c\u80a1\u7968\u80a1\u6743\u4ef7\u503c\u4e4b\u95f4\u662f\u600e\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff1f_\u7406\u60f3\u80a1\u7968\u6280\u672f\u8bba\u575b"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote style=\"font-size:15px;background-color: #F5F5F5;border:none;padding: 5px;margin:15px;line-height: 1.6;text-indent: 2em;\">\n<p style=\"margin-bottom:5px;\">\u79d2\u61c2\u6ce2\u6d6a\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u7684\u56db\u5ea6\u7a7a\u95f4\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u9999\u6e2f\u8457\u540d\u7684\u6ce2\u6d6a\u7406\u8bba\u5927\u5496\u8bb8\u6c82\u5149\u66fe\u7ecf\u5199\u8fc7\u4e00\u672c\u300a\u56db\u5ea6\u7a7a\u95f4\u300b\u7684\u4e66\uff0c\u91cc\u8fb9\u63d0\u5230\u4e86\u4ed6\u719f\u7ec3\u8fd0\u7528\u6ce2\u6d6a\u7406\u8bba\u57281988\u5e74\u81f31989\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\u591a\u6b21\u795e\u51c6\u9884\u6d4b\u6e2f\u80a1\u8d70\u52bf\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6210\u4e3a\u8f70\u52a8\u4e00\u5e02\u7684\u4eba\u7269\u3002\u5927\u5bb6\u660e\u767d\uff0c\u82e5\u7528\u6ce2\u6d6a\u7406\u8bba\u53bb\u89e3\u6790\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u8d70\u52bf\uff0c\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u662f\u8981\u628a\u6240\u6709\u80fd\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u6570\u6d6a\u65b9\u6cd5\u90fd\u5217\u4e3e\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u627e\u4e2a\u597d\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u628a\u91cc\u9762\u90a3\u4e9b\u6982\u7387\u4f4e\u6216\u8005\u57fa\u672c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u5220\u9664\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u627e\u51fa\u7279\u522b\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u6570\u6d6a\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u9996\u9009\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65b9\u6cd5\u6cbf\u7528\u81f3\u4eca\uff0c\u9999\u6e2f\u4eba\u5728\u7528\uff0c\u53f0\u6e7e\u4eba\u5728\u7528\uff0c\u5e7f\u4e1c\u4eba\u5728\u7528\uff0c\u5168\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u90fd\u5728\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u9ed1\u9a6c\u80a1\u7968<\/a><span class=\"toubu_gg\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\">go23_as(\"s808\");<\/script><\/span> <\/p>\n<p>\u73b0\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u4eba\u4eec\u80a1\u6743\u6295\u8d44\u610f\u8bc6\u7684\u589e\u5f3a\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e2a\u80a1\u7684\u671f\u6743\u6295\u8d44\u6709\u4e86\u8f83\u4e3a\u6d53\u539a\u7684\u5174\u8da3\uff0c\u6709\u5fd7\u4e8e\u5728\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u627e\u5230\u4eba\u751f\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\u6b64\u65f6\u95ee\u9898\u5c31\u6765\u4e86\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u671f\u6743\u79cd\u7c7b\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u5404\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4e5f\u662f\u5343\u5dee\u4e07\u53d8\u3002\u6709\u4eba\u4e0d\u7981\u8981\u95ee\uff1a\u671f\u671b\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u8ddf\u90a3\u4e2a\u80a1\u7968\u80a1\u6743\u4ef7\u503c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7a76\u7adf\u662f\u600e\u4e48\u6837\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u5462\uff1f\u671f\u671b\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\u671f\u671b\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u548c\u80a1\u7968\u80a1\u6743\u4ef7\u503c\" src=\"http:\/\/wmj.lixiangluntan.com\/2020\/9\/FZnuAj.jpg\" class=\"aligncenter\"><\/p>\n<p>\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4ece\u76f4\u89c9\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u671f\u671b\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u671f\u672b\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u671f\u671b\u503c\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u671f\u6743\u7684\u884c\u6743\u6536\u76ca\u4e5f\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5f80\u5f80\u4e8b\u4e0e\u613f\u8fdd\u3002\u6216\u8bb8\u6709\u4eba\u8981\u95ee\u4e86\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u5b83\u4e0d\u662f\u771f\u5b9e\u6982\u7387\u4e0b\u7684\u671f\u671b\u6536\u76ca\u5462?\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8fd9\u91cc\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u8981\u7528\u5230\u98ce\u9669\u4e2d\u6027\u6d4b\u5ea6\u5462?\u4e0b\u9762\u6211\u7528\u6848\u4f8b\u6765\u7ed9\u5927\u5bb6\u505a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5206\u6790\u5427\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5047\u5982\u67d0\u53ea\u65e0\u5206\u7ea2\u80a1\u7968S\u5f97\u4ef7\u683c\u662f1\uff0c\u5176\u4ef7\u683c\u670950%\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u52302\u6216\u8005\u4e0b\u8dcc\u52300.5\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u65e0\u98ce\u9669\u5229\u7387\u4e3a0\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u53ea\u80a1\u7968at-the-money call option\u7684\u671f\u671b\u6536\u76ca\u4e3a0.5\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u538c\u6076(risk aversion)\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c1\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5176\u671f\u671b\u6536\u76ca1.25\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\u98ce\u9669\u66f4\u5927\u7684call option\u4ef7\u683c\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u4e5f\u5e94\u8be5\u4f4e\u4e8e\u4ed6\u7684\u671f\u671b\u6536\u76ca0.5\u5462\uff1f\u6839\u636eput-call parity\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230Call - Put = Forward\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684Forward\u4ef7\u503c\u4e3a0\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5C=P\u3002\u8fd9\u4e48\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u6d88\u9664\u4e86arbitrage\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u7528\u6c42\u671f\u671b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5f97\u5230C=0.33\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u6982\u7387p=1\/3\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u4e2d\u6027\u6982\u7387(risk-neutral probability)\u3002\u98ce\u9669\u4e2d\u6027\u6d4b\u5ea6\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u8bf4\u5b9e\u9645\u6295\u8d44\u64cd\u4f5c\u4e2d\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u662f\u98ce\u9669\u4e2d\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u4ececall option\u7684\u4ef7\u683c0.33\u4f4e\u4e8e\u5b83\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u671f\u671b\u6536\u76ca0.5\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u4f9d\u65e7\u662f\u98ce\u9669\u538c\u6076\u7684\u3002\u800c\u662f\u8bf4\u5728\u90a3\u4e2a\u98ce\u9669\u4e2d\u6027\u6d4b\u5ea6\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\u9762\uff0c\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728arbitrage\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u671f\u671b\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5bf9\u671f\u6743\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5c31\u597d\u6bd4\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u662f\u98ce\u9669\u4e2d\u6027\u7684\u4e00\u6837\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u8bba\u8ff0\u91cc\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u660e\u767d\u4e86\u5728\u5b9e\u9645\u64cd\u4f5c\u91cc\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8981\u7528\u98ce\u9669\u4e2d\u6027\u6d4b\u5ea6\u53bb\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u53c8\u6216\u8005\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u771f\u7684\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u5148\u6765\u5047\u8bbe\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u53ef\u4ea4\u6613\u8d44\u4ea7\u662f\u503a\u5238\u3001\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e70\u51652\/3\u4efd\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u5356\u51fa1\/3\u503a\u5238\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8ba1\u7b97\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u73b0\u5230\u6700\u540e\u7684\u6240\u5f97\u6536\u76ca\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u548c\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u3001\u4e0b\u964d\u6982\u7387\u6ca1\u6709\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u90a3\u6709\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5c31\u4f1a\u8fd9\u6837\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff1a\u65e2\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u6784\u5efa\u590d\u5236\u7ec4\u5408\u6765\u590d\u5236\u671f\u6743\u6700\u7ec8\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u5c31\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u6784\u5efa\u8fd9\u4e00\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u6210\u672c\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f2\/3*S-1\/3*B=0.33\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u548c\u590d\u5236\u7ec4\u5408\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u5b58\u5728arbitrage\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u8ddf\u8fd9\u4e2a\u80a1\u7968\u671f\u671b\u6536\u76ca\u65e0\u5173\uff0c\u53ea\u548c\u54b1\u4eec\u7684\u5f53\u4e0b\u8d44\u4ea7\u6709\u5bc6\u5207\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u671f\u6743\u6700\u7ec8\u6536\u76ca\u5b83\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ec4\u5408\u590d\u5236\uff0c\u800c\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5c31\u7b49\u4e8e\u6784\u5efa\u8be5\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u5b83\u53ea\u548c\u90a3\u4e2a\u8d44\u4ea7\u5f53\u524d\u4ef7\u683c\u6709\u5173\uff0c\u4ece\u8fd9\u70b9\u4e0a\u8bb2\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u80a1\u7968\u671f\u671b\u6536\u76ca\u5bf9\u5b9a\u4ef7\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u4ea7\u751f\u591a\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4f46\u54b1\u4eec\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u5426\u5b9a\u671f\u671b\u6536\u76ca\u4e0e\u76f8\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u5bf9\u80a1\u4ef7\u6709\u771f\u5b9e\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u5bf9\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u683c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u660e\u663e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u603b\u7ed3\u4e00\u53e5\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\u5728BSM\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u80a1\u4ef7\u5b83\u662f\u670d\u4ecelog-normal distribution\u3002\u5f53\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e8c\u53c9\u6811\u6b65\u6570\u8db3\u591f\u591a\u65f6\u5c06\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5b83\u8d8b\u8fd1\u4e8elog-normal\u6570\u503c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u54b1\u4eec\u5b9e\u64cd\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u53ea\u8981\u5728\u6bcf\u4e2a\u8282\u70b9\u4e0a\u90fd\u91c7\u7528\u8fd9\u6837\u7684replicating strategy\uff0c\u54b1\u4eec\u5c31\u80fd\u591f\u590d\u5236\u671f\u6743\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0a\u9762\u5c31\u662f\u4eca\u5929\u4e3a\u5927\u5bb6\u5206\u4eab\u7684\u6b27\u5f0f\u80a1\u7968\u671f\u6743\u4ef7\u503c\u548c\u80a1\u7968\u671f\u671b\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u8877\u5fc3\u611f\u8c22\u5c0f\u83ab\u8001\u5e08\u7ed9\u6211\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u5e2e\u52a9\u3002\u5047\u5982\u5927\u5bb6\u8fd8\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u5173\u4e8e\u80a1\u7968\u671f\u6743\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7559\u8a00\u63d0\u95ee\uff0c\u6211\u5728\u540e\u7eed\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u4e88\u4ee5\u89e3\u7b54\u3002\u6700\u540e\u795d\u613f\u5927\u5bb6\u5728\u80a1\u6743\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u8def\u4e0a\u8d8a\u8d70\u8d8a\u5bbd\u3002<\/p>\n<p><script type=\"text\/javascript\">go23_as(\"s809\");<\/script> <\/p>\n<div class=\"pages_content\" 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