{"id":131579,"date":"2019-07-11T08:29:03","date_gmt":"2019-07-11T00:29:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/131579.html"},"modified":"2019-07-11T08:29:03","modified_gmt":"2019-07-11T00:29:03","slug":"%e5%ae%8f%e8%a7%82%e7%9b%91%e7%ae%a1%e8%be%be%e6%88%90%e4%b8%89%e5%85%b1%e8%af%86_%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5%e6%8a%95%e8%b5%84%e7%a0%b4%e8%a7%a3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/?p=131579","title":{"rendered":"\u5b8f\u89c2\u76d1\u7ba1\u8fbe\u6210\u4e09\u5171\u8bc6_\u7b56\u7565\u6295\u8d44\u7834\u89e3"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5185\u5bb9\u548c\u5206\u6790\u9762<\/p>\n

     
\n\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790<\/strong>\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u7684\u5206\u6790\u9762\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

     <\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5b8f\u89c2\u76d1\u7ba1<\/strong>\u8981\u614e\u91cd\uff0c\u8fbe\u6210\u4e09\u5171\u8bc6\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u3000\u3000\u672c\u6b21\u56fd\u9645\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u624d\u5c06\u5b8f\u89c2\u5ba1\u614e\u76d1\u7ba1\u7814\u7a76\u5e26\u5165\u524d\u6240\u672a\u6709\u7684\u9ad8\u5ea6\uff0c\u6b63\u5f0f\u8fdb\u5165\u201c\u6210\u719f\u671f\u201d\u3002\u5728\u5982\u96e8\u540e\u6625\u7b0b\u822c\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6587\u732e\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u5173\u5b8f\u89c2\u5ba1\u614e\u76d1\u7ba1\u95ee\u9898\u81f3\u5c11\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e09\u4e2a\u5c42\u9762\u8fbe\u6210\u5171\u8bc6\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u201c\u8d27\u5e01\u7a33\u5b9a\u201d\u65e0\u6cd5\u4fdd\u969c\u201c\u91d1\u878d\u7a33\u5b9a\u201d\u3002\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa70\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4fdd\u969c\u91d1\u878d\u7a33\u5b9a\u5c31\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u91d1\u878d\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u201c\u4e3b\u65cb\u5f8b\u201d\uff0c\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u201c\u8d27\u5e01\u7a33\u5b9a\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u91d1\u878d\u7a33\u5b9a\u201d\u4e3a\u4e3b\u5bfc\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u89c2\u70b9\u6307\u5bfc\u4e0b\uff0c\u5b9e\u8df5\u5f53\u4e2d\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u7a33\u5b9a\uff08\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u5f97\u5230\u6709\u6548\u63a7\u5236\uff09\u5374\u5e76\u672a\u5e26\u6765\u9884\u671f\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u5927\u5e45\u56de\u843d\u4e14\u8d8b\u4e8e\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5728\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u8fd8\u662f\u5728\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7387\u5728\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa70\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u671f\u8fbe\u5230\u5176\u5cf0\u503c\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5927\u90fd\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u5927\u5e45\u56de\u843d\u5e76\u8d8b\u4e8e\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7a33\u5b9a\u589e\u957f\u4e14\u4ea7\u51fa\u6ce2\u52a8\u8d8b\u4e8e\u6e29\u548c\u3002\u4ece\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5de5\u4e1a\u56fd\u5bb6\u4fbf\u5f00\u59cb\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u7a33\u5b9a\u589e\u957f\u4e14\u4ea7\u51fa\u6ce2\u52a8\u9010\u6b65\u8d8b\u4e8e\u6e29\u548c\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7684\u201c\u7e41\u8363\u2014\u8427\u6761\u201d\u88ab\u62c9\u957f\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u201c\u632f\u5e45\u201d\u660e\u663e\u6536\u7a84\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4fe1\u8d37\u4e0e\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u201c\u7e41\u8363\u2014\u8427\u6761\u5468\u671f\u201d\u6548\u5e94\u589e\u5f3a\u4e14\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u9891\u53d1\u3002\u4ece\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa80\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u671f\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u548c\u4fe1\u8d37\u8d70\u52bf\u5448\u73b0\u51fa\u4e24\u4e2a\uff1a\u4e00\u662f\uff0c\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0e\u4fe1\u8d37\u540c\u5411\u8d70\u5f3a\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u4ee5\u6765\u8fd9\u79cd\u8d8b\u52bf\u5f97\u5230\u5f3a\u5316\uff1b\u4e8c\u662f\uff0c\u4fe1\u8d37\u4e0e\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u201c\u7e41\u8363\u2014\u8427\u6761\u5468\u671f\u201d\u6548\u5e94\u66f4\u4e3a\u660e\u663e\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u76f8\u4f34\u968f\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u9891\u7387\u8fc5\u901f\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u635f\u5931\u4e0d\u65ad\u6500\u5347\u3002\u4e00\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\u5371\u673a\u9020\u6210\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u635f\u5931\u5360\u8be5\u56fdGDP\u7684\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u6709\u7684\u751a\u81f3\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fbe\u5230\u4e24\u4f4d\u6570\u3002\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb30\u591a\u5e74\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u7684\u9891\u7387\u4e0e\u5f3a\u5ea6\u5747\u660e\u663e\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5904\u4e8e\u6781\u5ea6\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u5f53\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u3000\u3000\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u5b8f\u89c2\u5ba1\u614e\u76d1\u7ba1\u4ee5\u9632\u8303\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4fdd\u969c\u91d1\u878d\u7a33\u5b9a\u4e3a\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5176\u5de5\u5177\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e3b\u8981\u57fa\u4e8e\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e24\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff1a\u4e00\u662f\u65f6\u95f4\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff08Time Dimension\uff0c\u6216\u79f0\u201c\u7eb5\u5411\u201d\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff09\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u5173\u6ce8\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u5982\u4f55\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u2014\u2014\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u5982\u4f55\u901a\u8fc7\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u4ee5\u53ca\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e0e\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u673a\u5236\u800c\u4e0d\u65ad\u653e\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5468\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u201c\u987a\u5468\u671f\u6027\u201d\uff08Procyclicality\uff09\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4e8c\u662f\u8de8\u884c\u4e1a\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff08Cross-sectional Dimension\uff0c\u6216\u79f0\u201c\u6a2a\u5411\u201d\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff09\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u8003\u8651\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\u4e0a\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u72b6\u51b5\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u6301\u6709\u7684\u5171\u540c\u98ce\u9669\u655e\u53e3\uff0c\u4e2a\u4f53\u6216\u7ec4\u522b\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u5bf9\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u5ea6\uff0c\u7b49\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u9057\u61be\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e09\u4e2a\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5404\u6709\u5efa\u6811\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e09\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u6761\u5757\u5272\u88c2\uff0c\u672a\u6210\u4f53\u7cfb\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e0e\u73b0\u9636\u6bb5\u6765\u81ea\u56fd\u9645\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u548c\u5404\u56fd\u76d1\u7ba1\u5f53\u5c40\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5b9e\u8df5\u4f3c\u6709\u8131\u8282\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5bfb\u627e\u4e09\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u5e76\u4e32\u4ee5\u4e30\u5bcc\u7684\u76d1\u7ba1\u5b9e\u8df5\uff0c\u6784\u5efa\u5b8f\u89c2\u5ba1\u614e\u76d1\u7ba1\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u5206\u6790\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u5e94\u5f53\u6210\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u6709\u5173\u5b8f\u89c2\u5ba1\u614e\u76d1\u7ba1\u4e0e\u5b9e\u8df5\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u65b9\u5411\u3002<\/p>\n

\u66f4\u591a\u5b8f\u89c2\u76d1\u7ba1\u76f8\u5173\u77e5\u8bc6\u8bf7\u5173\u6ce8\u77e5\u8bc6\u7f51<\/p>\n

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