{"id":115472,"date":"2018-10-04T16:34:08","date_gmt":"2018-10-04T08:34:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/115472.html"},"modified":"2018-10-04T16:34:08","modified_gmt":"2018-10-04T08:34:08","slug":"%e9%81%93%e6%b0%8f%e7%90%86%e8%ae%ba%e8%a6%81%e7%82%b9%ef%bc%88%e4%b8%89%ef%bc%89%e4%b8%bb%e8%a6%81%e7%9a%84%e7%a9%ba%e5%a4%b4%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba_%e9%80%9a%e8%be%be%e4%bf%a1%e8%b6%85%e8%b5%a2%e7%89%88","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lixiangluntan.com\/?p=115472","title":{"rendered":"\u9053\u6c0f\u7406\u8bba\u8981\u70b9\uff08\u4e09\uff09\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u7a7a\u5934\u5e02\u573a_\u901a\u8fbe\u4fe1\u8d85\u8d62\u7248\u7834\u89e3"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\u89c2\u5bdf\u5c3e\u76d8\u7684\u6280\u5de7<\/p>\n

\u89c2\u5bdf\u5c3e\u76d8\u7684\u6280\u5de7<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\n

\u3010\u80a1\u7968\u8d44\u6e90\u9986\u3011\u80a1\u7968\u8f6f\u4ef6\u7834\u89e3,\u5927\u667a\u6167\u8f6f\u4ef6\u7834\u89e3,\u901a\u8fbe\u4fe1\u8f6f\u4ef6\u7834\u89e3,\u6307\u5357\u9488\u8f6f\u4ef6\u7834\u89e3,\u5927\u667a\u6167\u7b56\u7565\u6295\u8d44\u7ec8\u7aef\u7834\u89e3\u7248,\u5927\u667a\u6167\u6caa\u6df110\u6863L2\u6570\u636e,\u7406\u60f3\u8bba\u575b,\u516c\u5f0f\u6307\u6807\u7f16\u5199\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u7a7a\u5934\u5e02\u573a(Primary Bear Markets):\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u7a7a\u5934\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u957f\u671f\u5411\u4e0b\u7684\u8d70\u52bf,\u5176\u95f4\u5939\u6742\u7740\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u53cd\u5f39\u3002\u5b83\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u5404\u79cd\u4e0d\u5229\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u56e0\u7d20,\u552f\u6709\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u5145\u5206\u53cd\u6620\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6700\u7cdf\u60c5\u51b5\u540e,\u8fd9\u79cd\u8d70\u52bf\u624d\u4f1a\u7ed3\u675f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u7a7a\u5934\u5e02\u573a\u4f1a\u5386\u7ecf\u4e09\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u9636\u6bb5: \u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5,\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u4e0d\u518d\u671f\u5f85\u80a1\u7968\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ef4\u6301\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u4ef7\u683c;\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9636\u6bb5\u7684\u5356\u538b\u662f\u53cd\u6620\u7ecf\u6d4e\u72b6\u51b5\u4e0e\u4f01\u4e1a\u76c8\u4f59\u7684\u8870\u9000; \u7b2c\u4e09\u9636\u6bb5\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u5065\u5168\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u5931\u671b\u6027\u5356\u538b,\u4e0d\u8bba\u4ef7\u503c\u5982\u4f55,\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u6025\u4e8e\u6c42\u73b0\u81f3\u5c11\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u3002\u8fd9\u9879\u5b9a\u4e49\u6709\u51e0\u4e2a\u5c42\u9762\u9700\u8981\u7406\u6e05\u3002\"\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u53cd\u5f39\"(\u6b21\u7ea7\u7684\u4fee\u6b63\u8d70\u52bf) \u662f\u7a7a\u5934\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u7279\u8272,\u4f46\u4e0d\u8bba\u662f\"\u5de5\u4e1a\u6307\u6570\",\u6216 \"\u8fd0\u8f93\u6307\u6570\",\u90fd\u7edd\u5bf9\u4e0d\u4f1a\u7a7f\u8d8a\u591a\u5934\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u9876\u90e8,\u4e24\u9879\u6307\u6570\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u540c\u65f6\u7a7f\u8d8a\u524d\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2d\u671f\u8d70\u52bf\u7684\u9ad8\u70b9\u3002\"\u4e0d\u5229\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u56e0\u7d20\" \u662f\u6307(\u51e0\u4e4e\u6beb\u65e0\u4f8b\u5916)\u653f\u5e9c\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u7ed3\u679c:\u5e72\u9884\u6027\u7684\u7acb\u6cd5,\u975e\u5e38\u4e25\u8083\u7684\u7a0e\u52a1\u4e0e\u8d38\u6613\u653f\u7b56,\u4e0d\u8d1f\u8d23\u4efb\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u6216(\u4e0e)\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u4ee5\u53ca\u91cd\u8981\u6218\u4e89\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u4e2a\u4eba\u4e5f\u66fe\u7ecf\u6839\u636e\"\u9053\u6c0f\u7406\u8bba\"\u5c061896\u5e74\u81f3\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u6307\u6570\u52a0\u4ee5\u5f52\u7c7b,\u5728\u6b64\u5217\u4e3e\u7a7a\u5934\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u7279\u8d28:<\/p>\n

\u3000\u30001.\u7531\u524d\u4e00\u4e2a\u591a\u5934\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u9ad8\u70b9\u8d77\u7b97,\u7a7a\u5934\u5e02\u573a\u8dcc\u5e45\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6570(median)\u4e3a29.4%,\u5176\u4e2d75%\u7684\u8dcc\u5e45\u4ecb\u4e8e20.4%\u81f347.1%\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u30002.\u7a7a\u5934\u5e02\u573a\u6301\u7eed\u671f\u9650\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6570\u662f1.1\u5e74,\u5176\u4e2d75%\u7684\u671f\u95f4\u4ecb\u4e8e0.8\u5e74\u81f32.8\u5e74\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u30003.\u7a7a\u5934\u5e02\u573a\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6,\u968f\u540e\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u4ee5\u504f\u4f4e\u7684\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\"\u8bd5\u63a2\"\u524d\u4e00\u4e2a\u591a\u5934\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u9ad8\u70b9,\u63a5\u7740\u51fa\u73b0\u5927\u91cf\u6025\u8dcc\u7684\u8d70\u52bf\u3002\u6240\u8c13\"\u8bd5\u63a2\"\u662f\u6307\u4ef7\u683c\u63a5\u8fd1\u800c\u7edd\u5bf9\u4e0d\u4f1a\u7a7f\u8d8a\u524d\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ad8\u70b9\u3002\"\u8bd5\u63a2\"\u671f\u9650,\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u504f\u4f4e\u663e\u793a\u4fe1\u5fc3\u51cf\u9000,\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u6f14\u53d8\u4e3a\"\u4e0d\u518d\u671f\u5f85\u80a1\u7968\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ef4\u6301\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\"\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u30004.\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4e00\u6bb5\u76f8\u5f53\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e4b\u540e,\u7a81\u7136\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u6025\u901f\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u6b21\u7ea7\u6298\u8fd4\u8d70\u52bf,\u63a5\u7740\u4fbf\u5f62\u6210\u5c0f\u5e45\u76d8\u6574\u800c\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u7f29\u5c0f\u7684\u8d70\u52bf, \u4f46\u6700\u540e\u4ecd\u5c06\u4e0b\u6ed1\u81f3\u65b0\u7684\u4f4e\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u30005.\u7a7a\u5934\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u786e\u8ba4\u65e5(confirmation date),\u662f\u6307\u4e24\u79cd\u5e02\u573a\u6307\u6570\u90fd\u5411\u4e0b\u7a81\u7834\u591a\u5934\u5e02\u573a\u6700\u8fd1\u4e00\u4e2a\u4fee\u6b63\u4f4e\u70b9\u7684\u65e5\u671f\u3002\u4e24\u79cd\u6307\u6570\u7a81\u7834\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u843d\u5dee,\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4e0d\u6b63\u5e38\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u30006.\u7a7a\u5934\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4e2d\u671f\u53cd\u5f39,\u901a\u5e38\u90fd\u5448\u73b0\u98a0\u5012\u7684\"V-\u578b\",\u5176\u4e2d\u4f4e\u4ef7\u7684\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u504f\u9ad8,\u800c\u9ad8\u4ef7\u7684\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u504f\u4f4e\u3002\u6709\u5173\u7a7a\u5934\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u60c5\u51b5,\u96f7\u4e9a\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u9879\u89c2\u5bdf\u975e\u5e38\u503c\u5f97\u91cd\u89c6:<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u7a7a\u5934\u884c\u60c5\u672b\u671f,\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u5229\u7a7a\u6d88\u606f\u4e0e\u60b2\u89c2\u8bba\u8c03\u5df2\u7ecf\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u514d\u75ab\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c,\u5728\u4e25\u91cd\u632b\u6298\u4e4b\u540e,\u80a1\u4ef7\u4e5f\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e0a\u4e27\u5931\u4e86\u53cd\u5f39\u7684\u80fd\u529b,\u79cd\u79cd\u5f81\u5146\u90fd\u663e\u793a,\u5e02\u573a\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fbe\u5230\u5747\u8861\u7684\u72b6\u6001,\u6295\u673a\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e0d\u6d3b\u8dc3,\u5356\u51fa\u884c\u4e3a\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u518d\u538b\u4f4e\u80a1\u4ef7,\u4f46\u4e70\u76d8\u7684\u529b\u9053\u663e\u7136\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u63a8\u5347\u4ef7\u683c.......\u5e02\u573a\u7b3c\u7f69\u5728\u60b2\u89c2\u7684\u6c14\u6c1b\u4e2d,\u80a1\u606f\u88ab\u53d6\u6d88,\u67d0\u4e9b\u5927\u578b\u4f01\u4e1a\u901a\u5e38\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u8d22\u52a1\u56f0\u96be\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u539f\u56e0,\u80a1\u4ef7\u4f1a\u5448\u73b0\u72ed\u5e45\u76d8\u6574\u7684\u8d70\u52bf\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u8fd9\u79cd\u72ed\u5e45\u8d70\u52bf\u660e\u786e\u5411\u4e0a\u7a81\u7834......\u5e02\u573a\u6307\u6570\u5c06\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u6ce2\u6bd4\u4e00\u6ce2\u9ad8\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u8d70\u52bf, \u5176\u4e2d\u5939\u6742\u7684\u8dcc\u52bf\u90fd\u672a\u8dcc\u7834\u524d\u4e00\u6ce2\u8dcc\u52bf\u7684\u4f4e\u70b9\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65f6\u5019......\u660e\u786e\u663e\u793a\u5e94\u8be5\u5efa\u7acb\u591a\u5934\u7684\u6295\u673a\u6027\u5934\u5bf8\u3002<\/p>\n

\n

\u3010\u80a1\u7968\u8d44\u6e90\u9986\u3011\u80a1\u7968\u8f6f\u4ef6\u7834\u89e3,\u5927\u667a\u6167\u8f6f\u4ef6\u7834\u89e3,\u901a\u8fbe\u4fe1\u8f6f\u4ef6\u7834\u89e3,\u6307\u5357\u9488\u8f6f\u4ef6\u7834\u89e3,\u5927\u667a\u6167\u7b56\u7565\u6295\u8d44\u7ec8\u7aef\u7834\u89e3\u7248,\u5927\u667a\u6167\u6caa\u6df110\u6863L2\u6570\u636e,\u7406\u60f3\u8bba\u575b,\u516c\u5f0f\u6307\u6807\u7f16\u5199\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\n

\u65d7\u578b\u5f62\u6001\u7684\u7279\u70b9\u53ca\u64cd\u4f5c\u6280\u5de7<\/p>\n

\u65d7\u578b\u5f62\u6001\u7684\u7279\u70b9\u53ca\u64cd\u4f5c\u6280\u5de7<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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