\u638c\u63e1\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u76846\u5927\u6700\u4f73\u4e70\u70b9\u5f81\u6218A\u80a1\u4e0d\u5728\u8bdd\u4e0b<\/p>\n
\u7092\u80a1\u6709\u51e0\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u91cf\u3001\u4ef7\u3001\u65f6\uff0c\u65f6\u5373\u4e3a\u4ecb\u5165\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u6700\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u4ecb\u5165\u65f6\u95f4\u9009\u5f97\u597d\uff0c\u5c31\u7b97\u80a1\u7968\u9009\u5f97\u5dee\u4e00\u4e9b\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u6709\u8d5a\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecb\u5165\u65f6\u673a\u4e0d\u597d\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u9009\u5bf9\u4e86\u80a1\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6da8\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd8\u4f1a\u88ab\u5957\u7262\u3002 \u3000\u3000\u800c\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u662f\u53cd\u6620\u80a1\u5e02\u4eba\u6c14\u805a\u6563\u7684\u4e00\u9762\u955c\u5b50\uff0c\u662f\u4ef7\u683c\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u539f\u52a8\u529b\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0d\u5c11\u6563\u6237\u901a\u8fc7\u89c2\u5bdf\u4e2a\u80a1\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u6765\u64cd\u4f5c\u80a1\u7968\u53d6\u5f97\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u5728\u5206\u6790\u8bc6\u522b\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u597d\u4e0e\u574f\uff0c\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u7684\u914d\u5408\u662f\u5fc5\u4e0d\u53ef\u5c11\u7684\u3002 \u3000\u3000 \u5982\u4f55\u5229\u7528\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u6765\u9009\u80a1 \u3000\u30001\u3002\u80a1\u4ef7\u542f\u52a8\u521d\u671f\uff0c\u5355\u65e5\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u5927\u4e8e\u8be5\u80a1\u7684\u524d\u4e94\u65e5\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf2.5\u500d\uff0c\u5927\u4e8e\u524d10\u65e5\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf3\u500d\u3002 \u3000\u30002\u3002\u80a1\u4ef7\u542f\u52a8\u521d\u671f\u7684\u5355{\u80a1\u7968\u8d44\u6e90\u9986:www.lixiangluntan.com\u4e13\u4e1a\u548c\u8c10\u9ad8\u7aef\u7092\u80a1\u8f6f\u4ef6--\u516c\u5f0f\u7f16\u5199\u4ea4\u6d41--\u52a0QQ751161480--}<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
\n\u3010\u80a1\u7968\u8d44\u6e90\u9986\u3011\u540c\u82b1\u987a\u5b9e\u65f6\u6e2f\u80a1\u7834\u89e3,\u540c\u82b1\u987a\u8d22\u5bcc\u4e3b\u529b\u7834\u89e3,\u5927\u667a\u6167\u8d22\u5bcc\u7834\u89e3\u7248,\u901a\u8fbe\u4fe1\u8d22\u5bcc\u7834\u89e3\u7248,\u901a\u8fbe\u4fe1\u4e13\u4e1a\u7248\u7834\u89e3,\u901a\u8fbe\u4fe1\u7814\u7a76\u7248\u7834\u89e3,\u901a\u8fbe\u4fe1\u8d85\u8d62\u7248\u7834\u89e3,\u80a1\u7968\u516c\u5f0f,\u80a1\u7968\u6307\u6807\u516c\u5f0f,\u80a1\u7968\u516c\u5f0f\u5927\u5168,\u6307\u5357\u9488\u8f6f\u4ef6\u7834\u89e3,\u7092\u80a1\u4e66\u7c4d,k\u7ebf\u56fe\u600e\u4e48\u770b,\u80a1\u7968k\u7ebf\u56fe,\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
<\/p>\n
\u907f\u514d\u4e43\u81f3\u6446\u8131\u201c\u4e8b\u540e\u806a\u660e\u504f\u5dee\u201d\u7684\u6700\u597d\u529e\u6cd5\uff0c\u662f\u589e\u5f3a\u53cd\u601d\u548c\u9632\u8303\u610f\u8bc6\u3002\u6bcf\u6b21\u64cd\u4f5c\u90fd\u5e94\u4ed4\u7ec6\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u64cd\u4f5c\u5931\u8bef\u5728\u4ec0\u4e48\u5730\u65b9\uff1f\u5728\u4ec0\u4e48\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u7ed3\u679c\uff1f\u8fd9\u79cd\u53cd\u601d\u6700\u597d\u80fd\u5f62\u6210\u6587\u5b57\uff0c\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u9057\u5fd8\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\uff0c\u9057\u5fd8\u4e5f\u662f\u5f62\u6210\u4e8b\u540e\u806a\u660e\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u201c\u4e8b\u540e\u806a\u660e\u504f\u5dee\u201d(hindsight bias)\uff0c\u4e5f\u79f0\u201c\u65e9\u77e5\u5982\u6b64\u6548\u5e94\u201d(know-it-all along effect)\uff0c\u662f\u6307\u4eba\u4eec\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5728\u4e8b\u540e\u5938\u5927\u539f\u6709\u4fe1\u5ff5\u4e0e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u76f8\u4f3c\u5ea6\uff0c\u8fc7\u9ad8\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e8b\u524d\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u7b80\u5355\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4fd7\u8bed\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u201c\u4e8b\u540e\u8bf8\u845b\u4eae\u201d\u3002<\/font><\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u5b66\u8005Walster\u6700\u65e9\u7814\u7a76\u4e8b\u540e\u806a\u660e\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u4e0a\u4e16\u7eaa\u516d\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u8bbe\u8ba1\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u8981\u6c42\u88ab\u8bd5\u51b3\u5b9a\u662f\u5426\u8d2d\u4e70\u623f\u4ea7\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u8003\u5bdf\u88ab\u8bd5\u8005\u5bf9\u9884\u671f\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u4ed6\u544a\u77e5\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u88ab\u8bd5\u8005\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u6240\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u544a\u77e5\u53e6\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u88ab\u8bd5\u8005\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u63d0\u524d\u83b7\u77e5\u7ed3\u679c\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u88ab\u8bd5\u8005\u5bf9\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u66f4\u6709\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002\u5df4\u9c81\u514b\u00b7\u83f2\u65bd\u970d\u592b\u548c\u9c81\u601d\u00b7\u8d1d\u601d\u57281975\u5e74\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u628a\u56db\u4e2a\u9c9c\u4e3a\u4eba\u77e5\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5224\u65ad\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff1a19\u4e16\u7eaa\u82f1\u56fd\u4e0e\u5c3c\u6cca\u5c14\u5ed3\u5c14\u5580\u65cf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6218\u4e89\uff1b1967\u5e74\u5728\u4e9a\u7279\u5170\u5927\u3001\u4f50\u6cbb\u4e9a\u5730\u533a\u56e0\u79cd\u65cf\u95ee\u9898\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u9a9a\u4e71\uff1b\u4e24\u4ef6\u4e34\u5e8a\u5fc3\u7406\u6848\u4f8b\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u5411\u88ab\u8bd5\u8005\u5448\u73b0\u5386\u53f2\u753b\u7247\uff0c\u77ed\u6682\u63cf\u8ff0\u5386\u53f2\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6216\u6848\u4f8b\u540e\uff0c\u5217\u51fa\u56db\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u7ed3\u679c(\u5176\u4e2d\u4e4b\u4e00\u5fc5\u4e3a\u6b63\u786e\u7ed3\u679c)\u3002\u5bf9A\u7ec4\uff0c\u4e0d\u544a\u77e5\u5b9e\u9645\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u6c42\u4ed6\u4eec\u8bc4\u5b9a\u6700\u7ec8\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u5bf9B\u7ec4\uff0c\u544a\u8bc9\u56db\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u5e76\u63d0\u4f9b\u201c\u771f\u5b9e\u201d\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u201c\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u201d\u662f\u968f\u673a\u5448\u73b0\u7684\uff0c\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u7b26\u5408\u5386\u53f2\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u8981\u6c42\u88ab\u8bd5\u8005\u8bc4\u5b9a\u6700\u7ec8\u4e8b\u5b9e\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\uff0cB\u7ec4\u5bf9\u5b9e\u9645\u7ed3\u679c\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u8bc4\u4f30\u9ad8\u3002\u8fd9\u8bf4\u660e\u7ed3\u679c\u4fe1\u606f\u4ecd\u7136\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u88ab\u8bd5\u8005\u7684\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u4e8b\u540e\u806a\u660e\u504f\u5dee\u3002<\/font><\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u4e16\u4eba\u7ecf\u5e38\u5632\u8bbd\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u8005\uff1a\u201c\u6bcf\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u603b\u80fd\u627e\u5230\u82e5\u5e72\u7406\u7531\uff0c\u8bc1\u660e\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5fc5\u7136\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u201d\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u51e0\u4e4e\u90fd\u6216\u591a\u6216\u5c11\u5b58\u5728\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u5927\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4e8b\u540e\u806a\u660e\u504f\u5dee\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5b58\u5728\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u5404\u4e2a\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u5982\u9009\u4e3e\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u51b3\u7b56\u3001\u5546\u4e1a\u6d3b\u52a8\u3001\u4f53\u80b2\u7ade\u6280\u3001\u533b\u7597\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7ed3\u679c\u3001\u81ea\u4f20\u8bb0\u5fc6\u3001\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u548c\u5de5\u4f5c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6295\u8d44\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff1b\u5e76\u5177\u6709\u8de8\u5e74\u9f84\u548c\u8de8\u6587\u5316\u7684\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u3002<\/font><\/p>\n
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